Can Ron DeSantis push Amendment 3 over the top?

Ron DeSantis was in Crystal River Wednesday, ostensibly to announce that his administration was providing an additional $100 million to restore and protect Florida’s water resources across 45 projects.

However, he spent nearly half of his press conference making the case once again for Amendment 3, the proposal on the statewide ballot that would cut property taxes for Florida homeowners.

With six days to go before Election Day, polls indicate the proposal might be in danger of failing.

A St. Pete Polls survey released Wednesday shows the measure with 44% support, with 39% opposed and 17% unsure. A University of North Florida poll released last week found Amendment 3 getting 50% support. Both would fall far short of the 60% threshold required for passage.

Although the governor has been the main driving force for well over a year-and-a-half in placing the property tax cut proposal before the voters, he initially declined to campaign for it after the Republican-controlled Legislature in June enacted changes to his original language.

He has since reversed that stance and has been actively supporting it, although not in any campaign ads. On Monday, he held a roundtable discussion with U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody and Department of Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson to extoll the proposal’s virtues and praised it again Wednesday as his press conference aired on the Florida Channel.

A variety of organizations have strongly opposed the measure, fearing it would significantly reduce tax revenues for local governments, forcing them to make serious budget cuts. State economists have estimated Amendment 3 would reduce revenue by $5 billion in its first year and as much as $12 billion annually when fully implemented.

The governor made the case in Crystal River that local governments can afford to take a financial haircut, noting they took in $32 billion in property tax revenues in 2019 and now receive $62 billion, well above what he says the pace of inflation and population growth would justify.

“My question is for those who say that we won’t have any services if Amendment 3 passes, did we not have services in 2019?” DeSantis asked. “So, don’t tell me we can’t give our homesteaders a relief. We can do it. One hundred percent.”

Law enforcement agencies such as the Florida Police Chiefs Association, have come out against the measure. In Jacksonville Wednesday, Jennifer “Cookie” Pritt, executive director of the organization, said during a press conference, “Before you vote, ask yourself one question: Where will the money for your local police come from? If no one can give you a straight answer, that tells you what you need to know about Amendment 3.”

DeSantis insisted again that if Amendment 3 passes, he would work with the Legislature to create a fund for fiscally constrained and other “bedroom” communities in places like the Tampa Bay area where they could apply for grants if they need more revenue for “critical needs” — to hire more police officers, for example.

The Legislature killed a provision of the governor’s original proposal that would have created a state trust fund to help local governments cover revenue shortfalls. There is no guarantee lawmakers would agree to do that in the approximately two months DeSantis has left in office.

The governor expressed concern that the Republican turnout hasn’t “been as strong as we would like to see” in vote-by-mail and early voting numbers that have come in. More than 3.7 million Floridians have voted so far, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, with registered Republicans holding a 1.2% lead over registered Democrats, 40.2%-39% (independent and third party registered voters amount to 21% of the state’s vote total to date).

The Republican Party of Florida has endorsed Amendment 3, while the Florida Democratic Party has opposes the measure.

Campaign spending has been heavily titled towards the pro-Amendment 3 forces. A political committee formed by the Florida Realtors to support it has raised more than $21.5 million, according to state election records.  The two political committees opposing Amendment 3, Floridians for Shared Prosperity and Vote No on 3 Florida, have raised a combined $1.3 million.

“I think that we need to do a better job of early voting,” DeSantis said. “Republicans have some work to do, and you guys just got to get out there and vote and then let the people’s will carry the day.”