For politics, what is an October surprise?

WASHINGTON (Gray DC) - An October surprise is an event that could shake up an election, but does it often make the difference?

Matt Dallek, a professor of political management at George Washington University, described it as “an event that, at least in theory, has the potential to shake up an election, something that people did not foresee coming that upends the debate.”

He said the term dates back to around the 1980 election, when President Jimmy Carter failed to secure the release of American hostages being held in Iran before November 4, 1980, election day. Carter lost to Republican rival Ronald Reagan.

Several surprises have occurred in the years since.

Surprises can be driven by a campaign or by news events. Examples include Iran-Contra-related indictments in 1992 and the global financial collapse in 2008.

Dallek said those surprises likely did not change the outcome of the election that November.

“There’s no evidence that they flip a dynamic that was already in place,” Dallek said. “What’s more typical is that an event occurs, it dominates the news cycle and the trend line starts to move further toward the candidate who was already doing well, who was already likely to prevail.”

One exception was the Comey letter. In 2016, less than two weeks before the election, then-FBI Director James Comey wrote a letter informing Congress the FBI had received new information concerning the email investigation into Hillary Clinton.

Days before Election Day, Comey wrote another letter saying the new information did not change previous conclusions in the investigation.

“It became a big news story,” Dallek said. “And it rekindled the impression, at least for some voters, it cemented this idea that she was corrupt. She was hiding something. It reminded people of her email scandal.”

Dallek said the closest thing to an October surprise this year may be the much-talked-about ad in the Ohio governor’s race. Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy tracked down his rival’s estranged mother. The ad uses the mother of his opponent, Amy Acton (D), to attack her.

The full impact of that ad will not be known until the votes are counted.