College football prediction: James Madison still good bet vs. Troy

The midweek 2-2-2 college football schedule continues Thursday with two games, one from the Sun Belt Conference and one from the American Athletic Conference.

Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas features our highest total of the season, and we’ve seen a flood of money come in on the over since Monday morning.

In a week that also features our lowest total of the season, Wisconsin vs. Iowa at 36½, this game’s total is more than double that number.

Both games kick off at 4:30 p.m. The other matchup, Troy vs. James Madison, is the one I have a stronger opinion on.

Troy at James Madison (-21, 49)

A return trip to the College Football Playoff seems highly unlikely for James Madison after what transpired last week, but the Dukes likely believe they still have a chance. Running up the score whenever possible would only help that cause.

After a 34-31 overtime loss to Appalachian State last Thursday, JMU has an opportunity to bounce back quickly.

The turnaround is also short for Troy, which is trying to recover from one of its worst home losses in recent memory. UL Monroe scored 18 fourth-quarter points to rally for a 21-14 win, earning its first victory over an FBS opponent since Sept. 27, 2025. Troy defeated the Warhawks 37-14 in Monroe last season, making this result a dramatic reversal.

The issue wasn’t simply that Troy lost. Upsets happen, even when a team is favored by 13½ points. The concern was how it lost.

Troy managed just 200 total yards and 12 first downs. Its quarterbacks combined to complete 9 of 18 passes for 47 yards. The rushing attack averaged only 3.3 yards per carry. It was an abysmal offensive performance, producing just 3.08 yards per play against a defense that had allowed 6.87 yards per play entering the game.

Goose Crowder finished 6 of 14 for 50 yards, while Tucker Kilcrease went 3 of 4 for minus-3 yards. Troy’s longest run came from Kilcrease on a 12-yard scramble. Leading rusher Gavin Griffin had 11 carries for only 39 yards. Top receiver TK Keyes did not play, and second-leading receiver Noreel White caught one pass for 12 yards.

Crowder was listed as questionable and ultimately played, but he was clearly limited. Significant money came in on UL Monroe after Troy’s injury report was released, but it’s still difficult to believe many bettors anticipated a performance this poor.

James Madison lost 34-31 in Boone despite outgaining Appalachian State 423-366. It was an uncharacteristically poor situational performance by the Dukes, who posted a third-down conversion rate of just 20 percent, according to Game on Paper. That ranked in the sixth percentile nationally this season.

Defensively, JMU continued to excel against the run and ranked in the 62nd percentile in Havoc Rate. However, the offense failed to do enough to secure the victory.

You also have to wonder whether Billy Napier should have gone for a two-point conversion after the Dukes scored with three seconds remaining to cap a 15-play, 71-yard drive. It would not have resulted in a point-spread cover, but it could have won the game outright. Instead, he elected to kick the extra point and take the game into overtime. That decision backfired when an 11-yard loss on the first play of overtime led to a missed field goal.

Despite last week’s disappointment, this remains a strong James Madison team. The Dukes rank among the top 40 nationally in defensive yards per play and among the top 25 offensively. They have outgained Sun Belt opponents by more than a yard per play.

Troy is plus-0.05 yards per play in conference games, but it also allowed nearly 7.8 yards per play to a struggling Southern Miss team.

I think the Dukes are poised to deliver a convincing victory in this matchup.

Pick: James Madison -21