NFL betting, predictions: Panthers-Packers running backs worth watching

Week 8 begins with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Carolina Panthers for “Thursday Night Football.”

If not for a rough day from kicker Trey Smack, Green Bay would likely enter this week on a four-game winning streak. Instead, Detroit snapped the Packers’ three-game winning streak with a 20-17 victory as a 3.5-point home favorite. Green Bay will now look to rebound at home against the Panthers, and there’s a strong expectation that it will do just that.

The Packers are a popular bet to take care of business, according to our DraftKings betting splits, and it’s easy to see why.

Over the past four weeks, the Packers have looked like one of the best teams in football. During that span, they rank No. 2 in EPA per play allowed (-0.118), and their pass defense (-0.099 dropback EPA per play allowed) has set the tone. Only four teams have been better against the pass than Green Bay over the last four weeks, and making opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable is crucial given the pass-first nature of today’s NFL.

The Packers are also playing well offensively. Their 0.217 dropback EPA per play ranks seventh in the league during this recent four-game stretch. Jordan Love has had some inconsistencies, but he has done a solid job leading the Green Bay offense.

There’s a lot that Green Bay is doing well right now, and the public tends to take notice when this iconic franchise is rolling. However, while researching these numbers, one thing stood out: The Panthers actually own a better statistical profile over the course of the entire season. Carolina also matches up well with Green Bay in several areas.

One factor working in Carolina’s favor is Green Bay’s pass rush. The Packers rank only 26th in the NFL in pass rush win rate (26 percent). Meanwhile, Carolina is 31st in pass block win rate (70 percent), meaning the Panthers have struggled to keep Bryce Young upright. However, that might not be as significant a concern if Green Bay’s defensive front can’t consistently generate pressure.

I’m also not convinced Green Bay will be able to prevent Chuba Hubbard from finding success on early downs. Hubbard has been difficult to bring down after contact this season, and there’s a good chance he’ll be productive in this matchup. We just saw Jahmyr Gibbs carry the ball 29 times against the Packers, wearing down their defensive line. Hubbard could be in position to capitalize on that.

On the other side of the ball, Carolina has struggled against the run. But will that be a problem against a Green Bay team that hasn’t consistently established its ground game? And how will Green Bay’s recently reshuffled offensive line perform against a Carolina defense that ranks eighth in the NFL in pass rush win rate (54 percent)?

I don’t think this game will be one-sided, and I like the way the Panthers have responded to losses at home under Dave Canales. They are 8-2 against the spread following a loss in Carolina under Canales. They’re also 4-0 both straight up and against the spread after a loss as a favorite during that stretch.

Panthers vs. Packers player props

Lean: Hubbard anytime touchdown (-120)

I’m already heavily invested in this game, so I won’t be adding any player props. However, if you’re looking for action in that market, Hubbard to score a touchdown would be my preferred play.

Only the Saints have allowed more touchdowns to opposing running backs than the nine surrendered by the Packers. Hubbard also scored three touchdowns over the previous two weeks before being held scoreless last week.

Our OptaAI player prop projections have Hubbard rushing for 81.36 yards in this game. As a result, the over on 68.5 rushing yards is certainly worth considering. That said, if Hubbard reaches 80 yards or more, there’s a good chance he’ll find the end zone as well.

Panthers vs. Packers pick

Fading the Packers at Lambeau Field is always risky, but most of the key metrics available to the public suggest there isn’t a significant gap between these teams. That makes it difficult to pass up the points, especially with +4 available at one prominent sportsbook. I also wouldn’t hesitate to take +3.5.

I’ll sprinkle some money on the moneyline as well. Young has played like a top-tier quarterback this season, ranking fifth in PFF grade at 82.4. I’ll take my chances with him in a close game if it comes down to a late drive.

Bet: Panthers +4 (-110, 1.5 units) and Panthers moneyline (+170, 0.5 units)