Most General Assembly contests not likely to be competitive — again, experts say

By Joe Wicke

ANNAPOLIS — When many Marylanders go to the polls this fall, they are not likely to cast their ballots in competitive races for the State House — and experts say that has long been the case in the largely Democratic state.

“Maryland has been a one-party state really since the Civil War,” said Matthew Burger, an assistant professor of political science at St. Mary’s College of Maryland. “The politics of each party has changed somewhat since the Civil War, obviously, but Maryland is a dominant blue state.”

The Democratic Party’s dominance is concentrated in the heavily populated Baltimore area and the Washington, D.C., suburbs, with Republican outposts concentrated on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland. Thanks to the Democratic Party’s strength, Republicans don’t even have a candidate in 19 of the state’s 47 State Senate races. In addition, Democrats are running unopposed for 49 of the state’s 141 House of Delegates seats.

For the first time in more than 50 years, Maryland Democrats will run a candidate in every legislative race, even though the party has long controlled the State House. The effort is part of the Maryland Democratic Party’s “Contest Every Seat” campaign. Democrats said the last time the party fielded candidates in every seat was 1974.

Matthew Crenson, a professor emeritus of political science at Johns Hopkins University, said Maryland Republicans have a chance to win in just a few districts.

Republicans tend to win in “overwhelmingly” red parts of the state, such as the Eastern Shore, said Crenson. He said areas in Harford and Anne Arundel counties also lean red.

In a quiet Maryland election year, all eyes turn to Lower Shore district

“The state is pretty geographically divided and also gerrymandered,” he said.

General Assembly races used to be more competitive, but that has changed in part because of recent political polarization, Crenson added.

“There were independents and also Democrats and Republicans who were willing to vote for the other party when the mood struck them,’’ he said. “I think there are many fewer today who are willing to do that.’’

Experts say Republicans have an uphill battle, but Maryland GOP leaders said they will try to make their case, blaming Democrats for increased taxes and the state’s structural deficits.

“While Democrats are running on a record of immense failure … Republicans are running on a clear message of affordability and breaking up the failed Democratic supermajority,” Maryland Republican Party Chairwoman Nicole Beus Harris said in a statement to Capital News Service. “We are confident that message is resonating with voters across Maryland.”

Democrats have such a majority in Maryland that some lawmakers are campaigning in other states to help fellow party members defeat GOP opponents and tie them to the Trump administration.

Del. N. Scott Phillips (D-Baltimore County) said he jokes there’s “less work to do” in Maryland to mobilize voters. Phillips said many of President Donald Trump’s policies hurt the state, including the loss of thousands of federal jobs.

“All of that says why it is in our best interest to make sure the right people are in office around the entire country,”  Phillips said.

Races to watch

Of all the General Assembly races, Burger said one that stands out is the House contest in District 33B in Anne Arundel County.

In past election cycles, Democrats have won key races in the county, including Wes Moore in the 2022 gubernatorial contest and Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, Burger said. But Del. Stuart Schmidt Jr., a Republican, won the seat in the 2022 general election.

Schmidt won 50.7% of the vote, which Burger called a “pretty tight margin.” The election was the first in the county since the map was redrawn after the 2020 Census.

“This was the first time that exact boundary was tested,” Burger said. “So I would say that’s probably one to watch.”

Next month, Schmidt will face off against Democrat nominee Chuck Cook, a senior adviser to Maryland’s Department of Housing and Community Development.

Burger also pointed to some House and Senate races in Baltimore County that President Trump won in 2020 and 2024. He said a “lack of enthusiasm” from Maryland Republicans and the growing unpopularity of the MAGA movement may make these races competitive.

“The trend in Maryland over the past couple election cycles is Maryland is not getting any redder, it’s getting bluer,” Burger said.

Another potential competitive race is Senate District 42 in Baltimore County where Democrat Stephanie Popescu is running against Republican Kevin Ford, Burger said. Incumbent Sen. Chris West, a Republican, is not running for reelection.

Eva Hodsdon, Popescu’s campaign manager, said independent voters will likely be a key factor in determining the winner. She said they are campaigning on differences between Democrats and Republicans.

“People are sick and tired of the MAGA agenda and have seen how that has driven costs down to the local level,” Hodsdon said. “People are fed up with it, and they’re ready to talk about it, and they’re ready to see a change.”

Ford, meanwhile, is focusing on state-specific issues.

“Maryland’s tax burdens are too high,” he said on his website. “I will be a consistent vote against new taxes and focus on reducing government spending. Maryland must learn to live within our means.”

Key issues in this race

Experts said there is no one issue likely to sway voters. Candidates are campaigning on a range of issues, including rising utility costs and higher education funding, according to candidate responses to a survey by the Local News Network at the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism.

LNN, which aims to strengthen local news coverage across Maryland, surveyed candidates since the spring to gauge their positions on key issues.

Sen. Paul Corderman (R-Frederick and Washington) said affordability is the number one issue facing Marylanders.

“Individuals and businesses are leaving Maryland because they can no longer afford to live, work and operate here,” Corderman wrote in the questionnaire. “Our goal is a stronger, more competitive economy where Marylanders can afford to build their future, raise their families and stay.”

Some candidates have called for more regulations for data centers amid concerns they will drive up energy costs for Maryland residents.

“Data centers should bear the full costs associated with the infrastructure and additional capacity they require,” Del. Harry Bhandari (D-Baltimore County) responded in the  questionnaire. “Regulators should evaluate the impacts of major projects on reliability, rates, water usage and surrounding communities before granting approval.”

Debate also continues over the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future, which increases state education funding by $3.8 billion annually. Del. April Fleming Miller (R-Frederick) wrote in her questionnaire that the Blueprint is “driving state and county budgets toward a fiscal cliff.”

Del. Julie Palakovich Carr (D-Montgomery), who voted in favor of the Blueprint, responded in the questionnaire that “encouraging signs” have emerged just a few years after the bill’s implementation. She said these include growing reading and math proficiency, more children attending pre-kindergarten and fewer unexcused absences for students.

“Although I think that the Blueprint is pointing us in the right direction, the issue is going to be how we continue to afford the program,” Palakovich Carr said in the questionnaire. “On that front, I will continue to sponsor legislation to bring in the revenues the state needs by closing corporate tax loopholes.”

Many voters are also wary of a ballot question that would amend the Maryland Constitution on congressional redistricting, Crenson said. Even among Democrats, he said there is some opposition to redistricting.

More than half of respondents to a poll conducted by the University of Maryland, Baltimore County said they will vote against the ballot question.

“It’s not popular with voters in general and the Republicans have made an issue of it,” he said. “I know that many Democrats are probably going to be voting against it.”

Still, Moore said he’s confident voters will support the ballot question. “The people are excited they have the power again,” Moore told CNS.

— Cat Murphy contributed to this report. Capital News Service is a student-staffed reporting service operated by the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Stories are available at the CNS site and may be reprinted as long as credit is given to Capital News Service and, most importantly, to the students who produced the work.