NJ GOP ‘a little nervous’ as Democrats open wide preelection edge

New Jersey Democrats are voting in droves ahead of Election Day, outpacing turnout in last year’s gubernatorial race in all but two counties as the number of Republicans casting mail ballots or early machine votes declines statewide.

Republican Party officials acknowledged the declines and said they have spurred worries among GOP chairs in some counties over what the early returns presaged for Election Day, but they insisted traditional Republican areas would see GOP candidates through to victory in the Nov. 3 elections.

“You see what’s happening. It’s good for the Democrats, but I think it’s like calling a game in the second inning,” said Cape May GOP Chairman Mike Donohue. “You don’t have enough data to conclude that it’s really this massive thing.”

Early in-person voting in New Jersey began on Saturday, while mail-in ballots went to voters more than a month ago.

All 12 of New Jersey’s House seats are on the ballot this year, as is Sen. Cory Booker (D).

New Jersey’s three House Republicans — Reps. Jeff Van Drew, Chris Smith, and Tom Kean Jr. — are defending their seats in a tough environment for Republicans. Recent polls have put President Donald Trump’s job approval rating at an average of 38%.

As of Monday morning, 385,626 registered Democrats had cast ballots in the Nov. 3 Elections, dwarfing the 124,813 Republican votes made so far, according to a New Jersey Monitor analysis of preelection data.

Perhaps more concerning for the GOP is that, as of Monday morning, 19,529 more Democrats have voted than did so at this point in the cycle last year. Republicans have seen the reverse trend, and their pre-Election Day turnout is down by 38,618.

“In speaking with some other Republican chairs throughout the state, there’s a concern about it,” said Ocean County GOP Chair George Gilmore. “People are a little nervous.”

Gilmore expressed confidence that Van Drew and Smith, incumbents who represent Ocean County, would prevail in their races, a sentiment echoed by Donohue and GOP State Chair Christine Hanlon.

Republican voters have historically been likelier to cast ballots on Election Day.

Democratic State Chairman LeRoy Jones said his party had ramped up activity in Van Drew’s district “because the signs are giving us a good reason to make some investments there as well.” Van Drew faces a challenge from Cape May City Mayor Zack Mullock (D).

Kean, meanwhile, faces a competitive challenge from former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett (D). Race raters say the contest leans in Bennett’s direction.

Though significantly more Democratic voters request mail-in ballots, voters belonging to both major parties have historically returned them at similar rates.

In 2025, Democrats’ return rate was only 1.1 percentage points higher than Republicans’ eight days out from Election Day, though it would expand to about 3.5 points once all mail ballots were counted.

This year, Democrats’ mail return rate is already 7.2 points higher than Republicans, and though the GOP has historically relied on stronger Election Day turnout, it’s possible the gap has already opened too wide.

“It’s a full-court press all the way. We don’t see ourselves letting up on the gas at all. Every day is going to be better than the day before,” said Jones, who also chairs Essex County’s Democratic Committee. “I don’t want to get ahead of my skis here. I’m cautiously optimistic.”

Republicans lost last year’s gubernatorial race and a handful of Assembly races, defeats that blindsided Republicans and could have sapped enthusiasm for Republican voters and campaigners, Donohue and Hanlon suggested.

“We’re facing headwinds, and we all have to — as Republicans — work together to get the vote out and try to get our voters enthusiastic about coming out,” said Hanlon, who is also Monmouth County’s clerk.

Enthusiasm in midterm elections historically has flowed away from the party in power in Washington, Hanlon added.

It’s possible Democrats’ preelection voting gap only appears so wide because of distortions. For one thing, Democrats this year are significantly likelier to cast their ballots by depositing them in a drop box.

A little more than half, 53%, of Democratic mail voters who’ve cast ballots so far used a drop box, compared to 39% of Republican mail voters. Ballots cast by drop box reach election officials faster than ballots turned over to the U.S. Postal Service.

While election data shows far more registered Democrats have voted at this point in the race, the data does not say who those voters actually backed on the ballot. Mail ballots won’t be counted until after polls close on Election Day.