Ohio Democrats outraised Republicans in home stretch of key U.S. House races

Democrats outraised Republicans in five of the six competitive U.S. House races in Ohio as the midterm election season enters its final days.

That includes Ohio’s 10th Congressional district, where 12-term Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Turner faces a late surge from Democratic challenger Kristina Knickerbocker for a chance to represent the Dayton area in Congress.

The data from Ohio reflects a national trend of both parties redirecting spending to newly competitive battlegrounds in traditionally Republican areas.

House Majority PAC, a super PAC aligned with House Democratic leadership, released a poll Wednesday showing Democratic nominee for the 15th Congressional district Don Leonard up 3% over Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Carey. It was one of six polls showing Democratic challengers leading in Republican strongholds.

Both districts were rated “Solid Republican” by Cook Political Report until August. On Oct. 16, the election forecaster shifted both to “Lean Republican.”

“For the first time in years, Democrats have genuine pickup opportunities deep into Trump territory, in districts that were once considered entirely out of reach,” House Majority PAC said in a press release.

Congressional candidates must file several financial disclosures throughout the year of their election. Reports for the first two weeks of October were due Oct. 22.

Democrats widened cash advantages in the 7th and 9th Congressional districts, which are rated “Toss-Up” by Cook Political Report, and in the 1st and 13th Congressional districts, which are rated “Likely Democratic.” Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Carey, who represents the 10th Congressional district, was the only Republican to outraise his opponent.

Even as independent polls of the Congressional generic ballot point to a favorable environment for Democrats, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Zach Bannon said the GOP is “on offense” across the state. 

Although the NRCC spent on ads supporting Turner in recent weeks, neither incumbent is on the organization’s list of vulnerable Republican congressmembers.

“Congressmen Mike Turner and Mike Carey are battle-tested leaders who have delivered real results for their communities and earned Ohioans’ trust,” Bannon said.

Democrats had the largest fundraising advantages in the two districts rated as toss-ups.

Democratic nominee for Ohio’s 7th Congressional district Brian Poindexter reported over $3.1 million in direct contributions from July through the first half of October, far more than incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Max Miller’s $180,000 in reported donations.

Miller put $1 million of his own money into the race in August after allegations of domestic abuse prompted several national Republicans, including both of Ohio’s U.S. Senators, to call for him to drop out. 

He spent almost $2.4 million in the third quarter, but just over $22,000 in the first two weeks of October, leaving him with around $135,000 in cash on hand. Poindexter reported a cash balance of around $793,000, making Miller the only incumbent in any of Ohio’s competitive Congressional districts with less cash on hand than his opponent.

“After Max Miller loaned himself $1 million to try to buy himself out of trouble, tens of thousands of grassroots supporters stepped up to help send a union ironworker to Congress,” Poindexter said in a press release. “I am grateful for their support.”

Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur spent over $3.2 million in the third quarter of her rematch with Republican nominee Derek Merrin. It’s the most Kaptur has spent in a single quarter over her 44 years representing Ohio’s 9th Congressional district, and more than her spending in all but two election cycles.

Kaptur beat Merrin by 0.7 percentage points in 2024 despite President Donald Trump winning the district by seven percentage points. The Ohio Redistricting Commission redrew the district’s boundaries in 2025; had the 2024 election used the new map, Trump would have won the new 9th Congressional district by 10.6 percentage points.

Kaptur is spending more of her own committee’s money and getting less outside help compared to the third quarter of 2024. Back then, super PACs spent over $4.4 million to support her or oppose Merrin while she spent just $2.2 million. Super PACs make independent expenditures, meaning that they are barred from coordinating with candidates by federal law.

Kaptur reported around $697,000 in cash balance to Merrin’s $430,000 cash on hand.

Ohio’s 1st and 13th Congressional districts were within Republicans’ sights at the start of 2026. 

Democratic U.S. Rep. Emilia Sykes won reelection to the 13th Congressional district by just 2.2 percentage points in 2024. Democratic U.S. Rep. Greg Landsman’s 1st Congressional district was redrawn from one that favored Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by seven percentage points to one that would have favored Trump by three percentage points.

Cook Political Report rated the 1st Congressional district “Toss-Up” and the 13th Congressional district “Lean Democratic” in March. The National Republican Congressional Committee added 1st Congressional district nominee Eric Conroy to its “MAGA Majority,” a list of challengers to vulnerable U.S. House Democrats, in April.

As the national environment deteriorated for Republicans in the summer and fall, the outlook for Republicans in both districts worsened.

Democrats and Republicans cut back on previous commitments to spend in the 1st Congressional district in October. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership, pulled all remaining advertising after announcing it would spend $4 million in the district. Their Democratic counterpart, the House Majority PAC, canceled around $192,000 in future advertising on Oct. 19.

A significant portion of that money is instead being spent on two ruby-red Congressional districts that Democrats believe they could flip.

Turner is in his 24th year of representing the Dayton area, which the 10th Congressional district encompasses entirely. He won all 12 of his regular Congressional election campaigns by 10 percentage points or more.

He was outraised from July through the first half of October by Democratic nominee Kristina Knickerbocker, who reported around $642,000 in direct contributions to Turner’s $417,000. He still has around $191,000 more in cash on hand from previous campaigns.

Carey reported around $772,000 while Democratic challenger for the 15th Congressional district Don Leonard received around $550,000 in campaign contributions over the same span. Carey had a cash advantage of around $272,000 as of Oct. 14. 

Although the NRCC spent on ads supporting Turner in recent weeks, neither incumbent is on the organization’s list of vulnerable Republican congressmembers.

“Congressmen Mike Turner and Mike Carey are battle-tested leaders who have delivered real results for their communities and earned Ohioans’ trust,” said Bannon, the NRCC spokesperson.

Independent polls are yet to be conducted for either district, but outside spending from both sides soared in October. Independent-expenditure groups spent a combined $5.4 million on ads in the two districts just in the week between Oct. 16 and Oct. 23.

A Democratic dark money group called Your Community PAC has spent close to $3.9 million in both races, making it the second-biggest spender in the two districts behind the party leadership-affiliated House Majority PAC. Knickerbocker and Leonard reject corporate PAC donations, and both have called for campaign finance reform.

Neither have any control over outside groups’ decisions to boost their campaigns, said Atiba Ellis, a Case Western Reserve University professor who studies campaign finance. 

“Candidates certainly could denounce ads that cut against their message. But at the same time, that could spin off into other misunderstandings that could affect the electorate,” he said. “So, even if it’s not a contribution, the outside spending and the commercials that result define the campaign in ways that it’s really hard for politicians to fight against.”

It reflects a larger trend of outside groups holding increasing influence on elections, even for campaigns with mostly grassroots donor bases, Ellis said. Republicans hold a large spending advantage in Ohio’s U.S. Senate and governor’s races despite being outraised by Democrats, largely because of outside groups.

These outside groups often spend on attack ads against candidates’ character, Ellis added, which can take attention away from important policy issues.

“Their premise is to motivate people using the least common denominator they can find concerning the candidate they oppose,” he said. “It’s ironic that in the name of getting out the vote, we’re being distracted from having serious debates about the issues that should guide people on how to vote.”