How would Tommy Tuberville govern Alabama?

U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville, the Republican nominee for Alabama’s governor, embraced data centers earlier this year, calling community concerns “bull crap.” Then as opposition to the facilities mounted, he unveiled a plan to give communities more power and promised regulations. 

Earlier this month, he reaffirmed his support for the facilities, citing economic opportunity. In his recently-released policy plan, called the “Playbook,” he went back to the community-controlled model that he wrote about in his September column. 

“I’m changing how Alabama treats data centers. No more tax breaks. They go in the highest property tax class, pay the full cost of the power lines, substations, and water systems they need, and replace the power and water capacity they take,” the playbook says. “Local communities decide whether a data center is right for them, and if your community says no, my answer is no.”

The data center issue reflects broader trends in the campaign: ambitious plans on a host of issues — including healthcare, education and sweeping audits of state government — often paired with back-and-forth messaging, all of which face the possibility of fiscal difficulties in Alabama’s budgets next year.  

Multiple messages seeking an interview with Tuberville, or a member of his staff, were left unanswered over the last two weeks. 

Tuberville remains the favorite to win the governor’s mansion in his contest with Democratic nominee Doug Jones, his predecessor in the U.S. Senate. Tuberville beat Jones in 2020 by 20 points after Jones was the first Democrat to win statewide office in two decades in 2017. 

Tuberville has maintained a financial edge over Jones throughout the race. Through Wednesday, Tuberville had raised $17.3 million since his campaign launch in May 2025 to Jones’ $6.8 million since his launch in December. Tuberville had about $2.3 million on hand to Jones’ $523,000. 

While Jones outraised and outspent Tuberville at the beginning of the month, the Republican nominee is catching up as Election Day grows near. In the third weekly report of October – the last before the campaigns began filing daily reports – Tuberville raised $704,000 and spent $2.2 million. Jones raised $219,000 and spent about $700,000. 

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Two recent polls showed a closing gap, but still predicted a comfortable Tuberville win. Both The Alabama Poll, run by Michael Lowry, a former aide to U.S. Rep. Robert Aderholt, R-Haleyville, and a poll conducted by the right-leaning Cygnal for Alabama Daily News and Gray Television found 51% of respondents said they would likely vote for Tuberville, and 39% for Jones, leaving about 9% undecided. The margin of error for each was 4% and 4.38%, respectively.

A poll released Wednesday by Democratic-leaning firm Blueprint Polling showed the race as a toss-up. It surveyed 695 likely Alabama voters between Oct. 22 and 24, 48% of whom indicated support for Tuberville and 45% for Jones, with 7% undecided. The poll has a 3.72% margin of error. 

David Hughes, a political science professor at the University of Louisiana at Lafayette who previously spent time at Auburn University at Montgomery, said in a recent phone interview that a win for Tuberville will likely depend on turnout in rural counties and in the 2nd Congressional District, the state’s most competitive.

The district was redrawn after the Supreme Court weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in the Louisiana v. Callais decision this spring. 

The new district was rated R+7 and was expected to be a fairly easy Republican pick-up. But incumbent U.S. Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Montgomery, has managed to outraise state Rep. Rhett Marques, R-Enterprise, and the Center for Politics moved the district from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up” on Tuesday. 

“I’m really interested in what turnout is going to look like in Shomari Figures’ district. That, I think, will be pretty telling come election night of who’s turning out or not because that shouldn’t be a particularly competitive district, but it’s beginning to look very competitive,” Hughes said. 

Hughes said other important areas for Tuberville will be Madison, Shelby, Lee and Tuscaloosa counties. 

The Center for Politics also shifted its rating for the governor’s race from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican” last week. While most races between the U.S. House and Senate, and open governorships seem to be shifting towards Democrats, the center changed its rating for the Oregon governor’s race from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic” on Oct. 6.

J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of the Center for Politics, said in a phone interview Tuesday that many of the center’s shifts, especially in governors’ races, are shifting away from the party in power.

“I think kind of one-party fatigue could be playing into this election as well,” Coleman said.

Gov. Kay Ivey won reelection in 2022 with 66% of votes to Democratic nominee Yolanda Flowers’ 29%. He also said that shifting Alabama’s race to “Likely Republican” does not mean that they think Jones will win, but it does reflect the polls and the closing gap.

“We have had polling that Tuberville is up, but he’s up by like 10 or 11 points, which is still comfortable. But in 2022, I think Gov. Ivey won by closer to 30 points, probably even more,” he said. “It’s probably not going to change hands, but it could get a little interesting.”

The campaign trail

Tuberville has limited many of his campaign stops to friendly territory, and often closed them to the media despite being marketed as “open to the public.” In at least one instance, that distinction was not communicated to a Mobile-based reporter who was escorted out of an event last week after asking a question. 

Most of the events are hosted by the local Republican Party, and marketed as “meet-and-greets.” 

He also made an appearance at a rally in Mobile on Oct. 2 with President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Tuberville.

“Tommy was a great coach, and he was a great senator. He’s going to be a fantastic governor, and he’s been my friend,” Trump said at the rally.

During the 2020 campaign, Tuberville and Trump’s relationship was rocky at the start, with Tuberville expressing frustration over the lack of healthcare access for veterans’ during the president’s first term. The president ultimately endorsed Tuberville over former U.S. Sen. and Attorney General Jeff Sessions in the 2020 primary. 

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Tuberville repeatedly praised Trump during his time in the U.S. Senate. In February, he suggested in a social media posting that Presidents Day should be named “President Donald J. Trump Day.” Now Tuberville touts his endorsement and relationship with the president, but has largely left Trump out of his advertising. 

“We’re going to win in November this year. I’m not running to have a governor in front of my name. I’m running to help. I’m not running for another job,” Tuberville said at the rally. “I want to come home and help this state get bigger and better. We got industry jobs. So buckle up.”

Rep. Scott Stadthagen, R-Hartselle, chair of the Alabama Republican Party, said in a phone interview Wednesday that Tuberville was the best candidate for the state’s high office. 

“I think having a strong conservative for our Republican nominee is extremely crucial moving forward for the state,” Stadthagen said. “I think some of the stuff that he plans on doing for the state is going to be a generational change for my daughter and for everybody else’s kids moving forward.”

With those values comes a laundry list of policy priorities, many of which would require additional or new funding, but Stadthagen thinks a Gov. Tuberville will be able to achieve everything he hopes to in his first term. 

Preparing for a new administration

Tuberville’s playbook covers everything he wants to accomplish in his first term. He plans to reduce taxes, expand the CHOOSE Act, the state’s voucher program; reduce the state workforce, bring more private jobs to Alabama, protect rural hospitals and audit every government agency, and more. 

The 22-page document has every aspect of his agenda, including an accountability system for his own administration. After the first year, Tuberville pledges to have a “full efficiency review,” and after the first 90 days, the administration will publish a public “scoreboard.” 

The scoreboard will include a measurement, like the state income tax, what it is today (5%), the administration’s target, “lower,” and a timeline. For that measure, it’s by the end of the first term. 

Lowering the income tax is part of his “Family Affordability Act,” which includes eliminating the state grocery tax, extending a utility rate freeze, a freeze on property tax rates for seniors and lowering the cost of childcare. 

“And too many families are working harder and still falling behind. Groceries, power bills, insurance, and child care keep climbing, and paychecks haven’t kept pace,” he writes in an introductory letter. “I’ll eliminate the state tax on groceries, cut the state income tax in my first term, and make sure no family’s power bill goes up so a big company can plug in.”

Stadthagen said Tuberville’s agenda will be “generational change” for Alabama. But most of Tuberville’s proposals will need approval from lawmakers. The governor of Alabama is weak relative to the Legislature, which can override gubernatorial vetoes with simple majority votes and effectively has the last word on policy. 

The elimination of the grocery tax is broadly popular across both parties. Republican leaders earlier this month announced they have a bill ready to file after the election to do so. Jones has called for repeal for months, and Democratic lawmakers on Monday reaffirmed their support for the elimination of the sales tax on food. 

Some of Tuberville’s proposals require funding – like widening I-65 to three lanes from Mobile to Huntsville – while others, like the elimination of the grocery tax and the reduction of the income tax, reduce state revenue. Stadthagen is not concerned about Tuberville’s ability to balance the state’s budget, though.

“Yes, things are going to cost a little bit more, but he’s for smaller government. He’s for saving money and cutting and being fiscally responsible with our tax dollars,” Stadthagen said. 

Sen. Greg Albritton, R-Atmore, outgoing chair of the General Fund Committee, said in a recent interview that he thinks Tuberville has put in the time to learn the limits of the governor’s office.

“Tuberville is working hard to get a grasp of the job already,” Albritton said. “I hear questions coming from many of them, asking and trying to get a grasp of what’s going on and what can happen. So, I think he will be as prepared as any person that comes into the governorship will be, at least academically.” 

Sen. Arthur Orr, R-Decatur, chair of Senate Education Trust Fund Committee, said in an interview Wednesday that some of Tuberville’s proposals that will impact the ETF – the reduction of the income tax and expansion of the CHOOSE Act – need to be done responsibly.

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“That’s the bread and butter of the ETF,” Orr said. “With the mobility of society today, we’ve got to be careful. We’ve got to at least look at it and see if it’s something that we can address again without wrecking the budgets and our responsibility to educate children and provide higher education services and all the other things we do in the ETF. We’ve just got to move cautiously. It’s a noble goal to have.”

The winner of next month’s election are likely to face challenges from the get-go. Former Finance Director Bill Poole and Legislative Fiscal Officer Kirk Fulford have repeatedly warned state agencies that fiscal year 2028 will be “challenging” and budgets will need to be conservative. The state’s two public employee insurance boards are seeking more funding and increasing premiums or direct costs amid rising healthcare costs. 

Orr said both of the agencies’ expected requests are part of the national issue, and the Legislature will have to “figure it out” in conjunction with Tuberville. 

“We’re going to have to deal with that at the state level, just like ordinary citizens are having to deal with it as they write their checks for their healthcare premiums via their employer,” Orr said. 

Although bipartisan efforts would not be required should Republicans maintain their supermajorities in the Legislature, many bipartisan and Democratic-led efforts have prevailed during Gov. Kay Ivey’s tenure. Some bills like a ban on Glock switches failed under Democratic sponsorship, but became law with Ivey’s support after a few years; or legislation guaranteeing paid parental leave for educators that took a bipartisan effort across both chambers.

Senate Minority Leader Bobby Singleton, D-Greensboro, the chair of the Alabama Democratic Party, said in a recent interview that he hopes that the teamwork will continue under a Tuberville administration. 

“As long as the Tuberville administration is bringing things to move the state forward, and not trying to carry the state backwards, then we can sit down at the table and we can come to some agreements on how to move Alabama forward,” Singleton said. 

Stadthagen echoed that sentiment. 

“We in the Alabama State House are completely different than DC. Of course, we stand strong on our policies for our party, but we have a really good working relationship within the chambers of the State House,” he said. “It’s completely different because we all know that we have to move and do what’s best for the state of Alabama.”