trails Foulkes by 11 points

A new poll released Tuesday by Salve Regina University’s Pell Center shows incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Seth Magaziner holding a 13-point lead over Republican challenger Victor Mellor in the race for Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District seat.

Of the voters surveyed, 52% said they support Magaziner, while 39% supported Mellor. Undecided voters comprised 7% of respondents.

The poll produced similar results to the WPRI/Emerson College poll released Oct. 13. In that poll, Magaziner led Mellor 55% to 39%. The WPRI poll sampled slightly more independent voters than the Salve poll.

The CD2 margin is narrower, however, when compared to Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Gabe Amo leads Republican Kellie Keenan by 19 points, 52% to 33%.

Katie Sonder, associate director and fellow at the Pell Center, said these results outline a somewhat closer race in the 2nd District than in the 1st, with independent voters playing an important role.

“I would point to the independents in this race,” Sonder said in a phone interview Monday.

Among independent voters surveyed, Sonder noted the poll showed 44% supported Magaziner and 39% supported Mellor.

“That’s really close,” Sonder said.

But among likely Democratic voters, Magaziner enjoyed much less ambiguous support. Sonder noted that 90% of Democratic voters said they’re backing the incumbent.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Jack Reed, Rhode Island’s other congressional incumbent, held a 23-point lead over Republican Raymond McKay, 55% to 32%, in the poll.

Embold Research conducted the survey from Oct. 5 to 8, crafting its sample of voters via online recruitment and text messaging. The 815-person sample spanned the entire state and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

The margin is larger for certain subsets of respondents, including those involving individual congressional districts. Sonder cautioned against people reading the polling numbers as predictive.

“Surveys like this pre-election give us a snapshot in time,” she said. “We’re doing our best to create a respondent pool that looks like who we think will show up on Election Day, but of course, that’s yet to be seen.”