Outside groups spending millions to oust state lawmakers up for reelection

With Maine’s entire state Legislature up for election in November, even incumbent lawmakers aren’t safe in their reelection bids. With outside groups — that don’t have to disclose their donors — increasing their involvement in state elections, the legislative districts with the most outside spending feature lawmakers up for reelection. 

According to data from the Maine Ethics Commission as of Thursday, Oct. 29, outside groups spent roughly $4.6 million in state races. And hanging in the balance is which party will claim a majority in Augusta for the new legislative session. 

Democrats currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers. The Maine Senate has 20 Democrats, 14 Republicans and one independent, Rick Bennett, a former Republican who still caucused with the party this session. In the Maine House of Representatives, Democrats hold 75 seats to Republicans’ 73, with one independent and two unenrolled members.

The nonpartisan newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics released its final analysis of state legislative races earlier this month. Senior columnist Louis Jacobson marked the Maine Senate as likely Democratic while the Maine House is considered leaning Democratic, with Jacobson naming it one of the 15 most competitive legislative chambers in the country. 

Data from the Maine Ethics Commission on independent expenditures, or spending in a candidate’s favor but not coordinated with the campaign, shows that outside groups are taking note and pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars in several State House races. 

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Nicholas Jacobs, associate professor of government at Colby College, said the rise of this sort of spending in Maine follows national trends. 

“A lot of that is just the general nationalization of our politics,” Jacobs said. “Maine had been immune for many election cycles from that nationalization.” Jacobs said that 2020 was probably the inflection point, or “the last hurrah for the ‘all politics is local’ mentality here in Maine.”

The major shift in campaign spending is broadly understood to be 2010, when the U.S. Supreme Court’s Citizens United ruling sided against campaign rules on First Amendment grounds, opening the door to unlimited independent spending by corporations and unions. 

But Jacobs said other, larger states soon after saw an influx of outside spending in state races, while the trend is just now reaching Maine, with many of the partisan groups now working  across several states.

“One of the things we know is that they sort of run very similar-looking campaigns in multiple states,” Jacobs said, noting that this helps groups scale their investment with the aim of a better return. 

“Mainers are going to see the same sort of advertisements in Maine as they’re going to be seeing in Virginia, as they’re going to be seeing in Iowa,” Jacobs said. This will ultimately impact what Maine voters see and hear about those running for local office.

“Especially for something as near and dear to the local as a state legislative contest,” he added, “I think this shapes people’s impressions about what the race is about, what their state government does.” 

Follow the money

Across the state, the bulk of the outside spending in legislative races is coming from a few political action committees. 

The biggest group not affiliated with a campaign participating in this election cycle is the Maine Democratic State Committee, the Maine Democratic Party’s political action committee, which has spent nearly $1.9 million on independent expenditures in state house races. 

The vast majority of Democratic spending is from that single PAC, while Republican support comes from several organizations.

Lead Maine Action, a political action committee run by outgoing Rep. Laurel Libby’s (R-Auburn), has spent more than $364,000 and Prosper Maine PAC, another conservative group, has spent just over $401,000. 

The PACs directly associated with the Maine Republican Party, the House Republican Fund and Maine Senate Republicans, have spent only $193,000 and $217,000, respectively. 

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And much of that money is focused on a few key races. The Senate races are drawing more outside dollars than the House races, but most of the costliest races in both chambers feature a sitting lawmaker running for reelection, suggesting the opposing party sees an opportunity to flip the seat and oust the incumbent. 

That’s the case in Senate District 20 in Androscoggin County. The district has seen the most outside spending of any legislative race, with more than $392,000 spent by PACs this year. 

Republican Sen. Bruce Bickford currently holds the seat, and is running for reelection against Democrat Michael Scott. Bickford was elected to the seat in 2024, and prior to that it was held by Republican Eric Brakey. 

But the Maine Democratic State Committee has bet big on flipping the seat, spending more than $182,000 to oppose Bickford and another $126,000 to support Scott. 

On the other side, Lead Maine Action has spent almost $5,000 to support Bickford and more than $38,000 to oppose Scott. 

Not far behind is Senate District 16 in Kennebec County, where $319,000 has been spent by political action committees. It’s another seat with a Republican incumbent, this time Sen. Scott Cyrway, who is facing off against Democrat Patric Moore. 

Cyrway was first elected to the state Senate in 2014, and represented the district until 2022. Because of term limits, he served the next two years in the Maine House and returned to the Senate in 2024. 

But during the two-year period that Cyrway was in the House, Democrat David LaFountain narrowly won the Senate District 16 seat over Republican Michael Perkins. 

The Maine Democratic State Committee has now spent $61,000 to support Moore, and $177,000 to oppose Cyrway. There hasn’t been any spending from PACs to oppose Moore, but Cyrway has gotten a boost from Maine Senate Republicans, which spent more than $24,000 in support. 

House districts are smaller, and independent expenditures are generally lower than in Senate races, but the majority of outside spending is still coming from a few key groups. 

House District 58 in Sagadahoc County has seen the most outside spending for that chamber, with outside groups spending more than $98,000. Rep. Sally Cluchey (D-Bowdoinham) has held the seat since 2022, and is facing off against Republican David Guilmette. 

The Maine Democratic State Committee has spent just over $16,000 to support Cluchey. Meanwhile, the Prosper Maine PAC, a conservative group, has spent nearly $18,000 to support Guilmette. 

Even independent incumbent Rep. Sharon Frost of Belgrade is not immune to outside spending. Her race in House District 58 is second in most outside spending in the chamber, with more than $95,000 from outside groups. 

Close behind in third place is House District 98, made up of Bowdoin, Durham, Lisbon, Pownal and Topsham, with more than $94,000 in outside spending. 

Incumbent Rep. Kilton Webb (D-Durham) is running against Republican William St. Michel. Webb won the seat in 2024, and before that it was held by Republican Joseph Galletta. 

The Maine Democratic State Committee has spent nearly $14,000 to support Webb and $3,000 to oppose St. Michel. While Prosper Maine PAC has spent nearly $19,000 supporting St. Michel and $2,000 opposing Webb. 

One open race drawing lots of monied interest is Senate District 15, another in Kennebec County. Sen. Dick Bradstreet (R-Kennebec) currently holds the seat, but isn’t running for reelection. Bradstreet won the district in 2024 following Republican Matthew Pouliot in 2022. 

Even though it’s an open race held by Republicans for several terms, more than $306,000 has been spent by outside groups. 

The Maine Democratic State Committee is again the biggest spender in the district, with more than $156,000 supporting Democrat Amanda Heath and $75,000 opposing Republican Kati McCormick while Maine Senate Republicans have spent $27,000 to support McCormick. 

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