Election 2026: Races to Watch

ELECTION 2026 · EDITION 5

Races to Watch

Welcome back to CommonWealth Beacon‘s Election 2026 newsletter run.

The marquee race on the November ballot looks like a matter of margin more than outcome, barring a shocking upset.

Gov. Maura Healey, seeking a second term, is the heavy favorite over Republican Mike Minogue. Polls through late August showed her leading by roughly 20 points, and a recent CommonWealth Beacon survey put her ahead by 22 points.

Minogue — a GOP megadonor and former Abiomed CEO who says he plans to govern without a lieutenant governor since the party’s nominee dropped out — has framed his campaign around the cost of living and the argument that state government is “smothering the American dream.” Healey has responded by linking him to President Donald Trump’s agenda, which is deeply unpopular in the Bay State.

The state congressional delegation looks likely to sweep through the general election with ease, after a few incumbents waved off primary challenges in September. But there will be at least one new face, filling US Rep. Seth Moulton’s empty seat after his unsuccessful bid to oust US Sen. Ed Markey. Democrat Dan Koh, a former aide in the Biden administration who also worked for Boston Mayor Marty Walsh, is the front-runner in the race for the Sixth Congressional District representing the North Shore. He faces Republican Micah Jones, a US Army veteran who says a “resistance only mindset” from a fully Democratic delegation could cost the state federal resources.

Democrats are also certain to keep their overwhelming majorities in both chambers at the State House. The majority party currently holds 166 of the Legislature’s 200 seats. But a handful of down-ballot races feature interesting general election contests, based on a CommonWealth Beacon analysis of 2024 presidential results by legislative district: the First Bristol Senate District and the Third, Seventh, and Eighth Bristol House Districts.

First Bristol Senate District

As chair of the powerful Senate Ways and Means Committee, Sen. Michael Rodrigues of Westport is one of the most influential figures in state government and one of the most trusted deputies to Senate President Karen Spilka.

He also, despite being a Democrat, represents the single most pro-Trump district in the entire Massachusetts Senate. Two years ago, voters in the First Bristol Senate district that Rodrigues represents broke for the Republican presidential nominee by a margin of nearly 7 percentage points over the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris.

This year, Rodrigues will need to convince those same voters it’s better to keep a high-profile Democrat in the seat against a challenge from Republican Gabriel “Boomer” Amaral of Fall River. Amaral was nearly elected mayor of Fall River last year. He argues that state investments have not kept pace with rising South Shore costs, despite Rodrigues’s leadership position.

Third Bristol House District

Another Bristol district will feature a rematch. Democratic incumbent Lisa Field faces Republican Lawrence Quintal in the Third Bristol District, after Field prevailed by just 15 votes in a special election in June 2025. Field filled the seat previously held by Democratic incumbent Carol Doherty, who died earlier that year.

They are running on essentially identical platforms this time around, with Field promising to continue her efforts to address rising costs of living, protect workers’ rights, ensure affordable and quality health care, create more opportunities for education and workforce development, and promote government transparency.

Quintal says he will prioritize decreasing taxes and energy costs, increasing state aid, and improving housing access for seniors, veterans, and low-income families.

Harris carried the district — which covers parts of Easton and Taunton — by 5.6 points in 2024.

Seventh Bristol House District

A Republican challenging 13-year Democratic incumbent Alan Silvia in the Seventh Bristol District has tried to make hay out of the increasingly partisan politics surrounding state Auditor Diana DiZoglio’s attempts to audit the Legislature. While a solid majority of both parties support the effort, according to polling, Republicans have embraced it as a cudgel against the Democratic leadership.

Silvia filed a brief supporting DiZiglio’s audit efforts in April, breaking with party leadership and describing their actions as “obstruction.” Silvia said his constituents “continually ask me, ‘Where’s the audit?’ I can no longer sit back and kick this can down the road.”

Trump carried the district by about 4 percentage points in 2024. Talos Farris, the Republican candidate, accused Silvia of political maneuvering by opposing the audit and then supporting it. Voters, he said, should not have representation that “bows to partisan leadership until their seat is on the line.”

Eighth Bristol House District

One of the most Trump-leaning House districts — the Eighth Bristol District covering Westport and parts of Freetown, Acushnet, Fall River, and New Bedford — has been represented by Democrats but teeters on the edge of party alignment. Rep. Steven Ouellette, of Westport, replaced fellow Democrat and 14-year representative Paul Schmid in 2024 by edging out the Republican candidate by just 300 votes. That same year, Trump carried the district by about 11 percentage points over Harris.

This cycle, Ouellete faces Jesse St. Gelais, a Republican from Acushnet. Both candidates say they are focused on public safety and addressing the soaring cost of living, but St. Gelais has said he would like to see the end of offshore wind and plans to vote “no” on ballot Question 9 in order to repeal the recently passed firearms law. The race looks tighter than a longtime Democratic seat would suggest, according to the New Bedford Light. In the Republican primary, St. Gelais bested by 800 votes the same Republican that Oulette fended off in 2024.

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