College football trends, predictions: Notre Dame, Florida, Arizona among teams to bet

Bruce Marshall is a handicapper for WagerTalk.com. He provides the Review-Journal with college football notes and trends.

Notre Dame vs. Navy: Irish have won and covered the last three meetings against the Midshipmen, while their straight-up winning streak in the series has reached eight games. Navy’s last series win came in 2016, and the teams did not meet during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Edge: Notre Dame, based on series trends.

Arizona at Texas Tech: Arizona has won five straight and covered three straight entering Saturday. The Red Raiders are just 2-5 against the spread this season (counting Sam Houston on Sept. 26 as an ATS loss). Texas Tech is also on a 5-0-1 over run entering the weekend. Edge: Arizona and slight lean to the over, based on team and totals trends.

Wisconsin at Iowa: Kirk Ferentz has owned Luke Fickell the past three seasons, with the Hawkeyes winning and covering convincingly in each matchup. Iowa has now won and covered four straight in the series. The Hawkeyes are 9-4-1 against the spread in Iowa City since early 2024. The Badgers are only 4-5 against the spread as visitors since late 2024. Edge: Iowa, based on team trends.

Auburn at Ole Miss: The teams have not met since 2023. The Tigers are just 2-5 against the spread this season under Alex Golesh and are on a 4-13 ATS slide since early 2025. The Rebels are on an 8-3 ATS run at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Edge: Ole Miss, based on recent trends.

Florida vs. Georgia: The Gators have covered the last two meetings and three of the last four against the Bulldogs, though they have not beaten Georgia outright since the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Jon Sumrall is 2-0 as an underdog this season and 10-4 in that role since 2022 at Troy, Tulane and Florida. Edge: Slight lean to Florida, based on recent trends.

Minnesota at Indiana: The teams have not met since 2021. P.J. Fleck is 3-0 as an underdog this season (counting the Mississippi State game as a pick’em), and the Gophers are 9-5 as underdogs since early 2024. The Hoosiers are just 1-7 against the spread this season. Edge: Minnesota, based on recent trends.

Arizona State at BYU: The Sun Devils have not covered the spread in consecutive games since September 2025 against Texas State and Baylor, a span of 16 games. Meanwhile, BYU has covered seven straight at Provo and is on a 13-3 ATS run since early last season under Kalani Sitake. Edge: BYU, based on recent trends.

Northwestern at Oregon: The Wildcats have been a revelation this season, posting a 6-1 straight-up record and a 6-1 mark against the spread. They are also on an 11-3-2 ATS run since early last season. Meanwhile, 2026 has been a nightmare for the Ducks, who have covered just one of six games against FBS opponents this season. Edge: Northwestern, based on recent trends.

Colorado State at Utah State: The home team is 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four meetings. Colorado State is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games (0-2 this season) and is also 7-0 to the over this season. Utah State, however, is 6-1 to the under in 2026. Edge: Slight lean to Utah State, based on team trends.

Utah at Cincinnati: Utah won and covered in a 45-14 rout at Salt Lake City in this matchup last season. The Utes are also 7-1 against the spread in their last eight lined games since late 2025. Cincinnati, however, is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread at Nippert Stadium this season and is on a 5-1 over run. Edge: Slight lean to Utah and the over, based on team and totals trends.

New Mexico at San Jose State: New Mexico is 6-1 against the spread this season and 14-5 ATS since coach Jason Eck arrived last year. San Jose State has gone under in six straight games this season and has failed to cover its last five home games dating to last season. Edge: New Mexico and the under, based on team and totals trends.

Nevada at UCLA: The Wolf Pack has been providing solid ATS value lately, covering four straight games and posting a 5-2 ATS mark in its last seven road games. UCLA, however, is 7-0 straight up and 6-0-1 against the spread under Bob Chesney this season and has gone under in three straight contests. Edge: Slight lean to UCLA and the under, based on team and totals trends.

Washington State at San Diego State: Washington State is on a 7-2-1 ATS run away from Pullman since early 2025 (counting the Oct. 17 game against Oregon State as a push). San Diego State enters the weekend on a surprising 5-0 over streak. Edge: Slight lean to Washington State and the over, based on recent and totals trends.

Miami (Fla.) at North Carolina: Miami is on a 10-2 ATS run since late last season. The Hurricanes have also lost five straight outright to the Tar Heels and are 1-4 ATS in those games, though all came against teams coached by Mack Brown. The last meeting was in 2023. Bill Belichick is 2-6-1 against the spread at Chapel Hill since taking over at North Carolina last season. Edge: Miami, based on recent trends.

Ohio State at USC: Ohio State is 7-1 against the spread in road games since early 2025. USC is on a 5-14 ATS slide since early last season and just 2-6 against the spread in 2026. The Trojans have also failed to cover their last three games as underdogs and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at the Coliseum since mid-2025. Edge: Ohio State, based on recent trends.

Mississippi State at Texas: Texas needed overtime to survive in Starkville last season and has failed to cover in each of the last two meetings with Mississippi State. The Longhorns are also just 6-7-1 against the spread in Austin since early 2024, and Steve Sarkisian had dropped five straight ATS decisions before last week’s win over Ole Miss. The injury-depleted Bulldogs are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their last three games this season, though they are a surprising 9-3 ATS as road underdogs since mid-2024. Edge: Slight lean to Mississippi State, based on longer-term trends.

Washington at Nebraska: Interestingly, the visiting team has covered the spread in Washington’s last nine regular-season games dating to late 2025. The Huskies are 3-0 ATS on the road during that span. Nebraska, however, has covered six straight games against FBS opponents this season and has gone under in four of its last five games in 2026. Edge: Slight lean to Washington and the under, based on team and totals trends.

Texas State at Boise State: Texas State is on a 10-5 over run and is just 1-6 against the spread on the road since early 2025. Boise State is 5-2 to the over this season. Edge: Over and slight lean to Boise State, based on totals and team trends.

Northern Illinois at UNLV: It has been a nightmarish season for the winless Huskies, who are 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread. They are also 7-20-2 ATS since their upset victory at Notre Dame in early 2024. Edge: UNLV, based on team trends.

Oregon State at Fresno State: Oregon State is 6-0-1 against the spread this season (counting the Oct. 17 game against Washington State as a push), including 3-0 ATS on the road. The Beavers are also 6-1 to the over in 2026. Fresno State has gone over in three of its last four games this season. Edge: Oregon State and the over, based on recent and totals trends.