Female voters could decide tight Texas midterm races, experts say

MEADOWS PLACE, Texas (KTRK) -- With days left before Election Day, experts say female voters could decide tight statewide races across Texas.

New Texas Southern University polling shows nearly all of the statewide races are close. At the same time, AP VoteCast data shows a shift in how Texas female voters cast their ballots.

On Thursday, ABC13 spoke with some suburban female voters to see what was driving them to the ballot box. The top issues heard were the economy and gas prices.

"We're back to pre-administration prices. It's a mess," voter Bethany Jones said.

"For sure, yes. The economy. Everything has gone up. Hopefully, we chose the right people to help with that," voter Angie Garza said.

Two years ago, data showed abortion was a top issue. However, Rice University political science professor Mark Jones said that has changed.

"Abortion has disappeared as an issue. The issue that's really driving things is the economy. Whether it's economic growth, prosperity, or inflation," Jones said.

Jones said the economy could be a problem for Republicans because female voters have been trending toward Democrats recently. If women blame Republicans for higher prices, he said, it could sway outcomes.

AP VoteCast data shows that six years ago, white college-educated women largely supported Republican John Cornyn in his Senate reelection. Two years ago, they broke for the Democratic candidate. The data shows a similar trend for suburban women, who moved toward Republicans but recently shifted back to Democrats.

Jones said that shift could continue.

"What we're seeing among many women who are college educated is very strong disapproval ratings for Trump. One of the places really being hurt by Donald Trump's unpopularity is among suburban women," Jones said.

Jones said the trend matters because Texas has more female voters than male voters, so a shift in how women vote in a tight race could decide the outcome.

"There are too many countries and cultures that will silence the women's voice. I live in a wonderful country where I am able to come out and share my voice," voter Bethany Jones said.

AP voter data also shows Republicans had a 12-point advantage among suburban male voters two years ago. Even if they keep that margin, experts say it may not be enough to overcome the female vote.