Thursday evening forecast: Flooding possible in parts of SE New Mexico

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – A flash flood watch is in effect around Ruidoso as deeper moisture pushes into New Mexico and raises the risk of heavy rain and flooding.

Another surge of moisture is moving into New Mexico this evening as a weather disturbance moves northeast out of northern Mexico.

That system is pulling deeper moisture into southern and eastern parts of the state. Some of that moisture may include remnants from Tropical Storm Vance.

Showers and thunderstorms are already developing over the south-central mountains. Better chances this evening include Ruidoso, Ruidoso Downs, Mescalero, Capitan, Carrizozo, Roswell, Chaves County and the Sacramento Mountains.

The biggest concern is around the Ruidoso area, where a flash flood watch covers the south-central mountains. Heavy rain over burn scars can produce very rapid runoff.

Farther east, Roswell and Chaves County could also see heavier rain. Localized totals of one to two inches will be possible with more persistent showers and thunderstorms, though not every community will get that much rain.

As daytime heating fades tonight, thunderstorms should become less intense. The weather will then shift toward a more widespread area of showers, steady rain and occasional moderate rain across eastern New Mexico.

That focus includes Roswell, Artesia, Clovis, Portales, Tucumcari and Santa Rosa. Areas closer to the Texas border have the better chance for longer-duration rain.

Friday, rain will continue across much of eastern New Mexico. The deepest moisture will favor areas near the Texas border, with steady rain, periods of moderate rain and embedded showers expected rather than widespread severe thunderstorms.

Rain may continue through a large portion of Friday in Clovis, Portales, Tucumcari, Roswell, Artesia and areas near the Texas border before the first weather disturbance finally moves east.

Friday night, rain across eastern New Mexico will begin to decrease, but the ground will remain very wet. Low clouds and fog will likely develop again in Tucumcari, Clovis, Portales, Roswell and Santa Rosa, especially in low-lying areas and places with standing water.

From Friday night into Saturday, a second weather disturbance will cross northern New Mexico and bring another round of showers. Better chances will favor Farmington, Gallup, Chama, Taos and the northern mountains.

Saturday will act as a transition day, with a few showers still possible across northern and western New Mexico. A much stronger Pacific storm system will begin organizing to the west as Pacific moisture starts increasing again.

By Saturday night, moisture will increase rapidly across western New Mexico. Showers should begin increasing around Gallup, Farmington, Shiprock, the Four Corners and the western mountains.

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