College football betting: UCF holds advantage at QB against Baylor

Three games are on the college football schedule Friday night, headlined by Baylor vs. UCF.

Both teams are in difficult spots. The Knights upset BYU at home in overtime last week, while the Bears fired head coach Dave Aranda after a home loss to Kansas.

On a night featuring the MAC, American Athletic Conference and Big 12, Kent State is a rare home favorite, a mediocre Tulane team is laying double digits, and Baylor-UCF shapes up as a coin flip in Orlando.

Despite the unusual circumstances surrounding Baylor and UCF, this is the game of the night and the matchup that deserves the most attention.

Baylor at UCF (Pick ’em, 48)

Baylor heads to the Bounce House this week, and we’ll see whether interim coach Joe Klanderman can bring new energy to the Bears. It felt as though Aranda had been hanging on by a thread for a while, and it finally came to a head last week when a blocked field goal contributed to a loss against Kansas.

I watched Klanderman’s media availability this week, and he came across as an honest and thoughtful coach who isn’t going to mislead his players about what’s happening. I appreciate that. In this day and age, I think players appreciate it as well.

Klanderman will continue to call the defense, while longtime offensive mind Jake Spavital will have creative freedom on offense. Spavital, 41, was Texas A&M’s offensive coordinator by age 30 and later spent four challenging seasons as Texas State’s coach. Even so, he has remained highly regarded in coaching circles and now has free rein over the offense.

The offense has not been good by any stretch, but Aranda’s teams often lacked explosiveness and aggression offensively. With a significant investment in DJ Lagway, we’ll see whether Spavital can unlock some of that potential.

Lagway has completed only 52.1 percent of his passes and has just 19 rushing yards on 26 carries, so Baylor has struggled to take advantage of his mobility. Leading rusher Dawson Pendergrass is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. The Baylor offensive line needs to improve, but the Bears should show better effort and focus this week.

UCF coach Scott Frost brought in Keyone Jenkins as insurance behind expected starter Alonza Barrett III, who transferred from James Madison. Instead, it has been Jenkins, a transfer from FIU, who has carried the team during Barrett’s absence. He has posted an 11-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. Transfer running back Duke Watson has averaged 6.8 yards per carry.

While Baylor’s defensive numbers compare favorably, with the Bears ranking 17th nationally in yards allowed per play, context is important. Jeff Sagarin’s ratings show a strength-of-schedule gap of 30 spots between the teams. UCF has already faced three top-30 opponents in Sagarin’s rankings, while Baylor has not faced any.

The Knights rank 27th in strength of schedule, while the Bears rank 57th. UCF’s Big 12 slate has included TCU, Houston, Oklahoma State and BYU. Baylor has faced Colorado, Arizona State, TCU and Kansas. Of those opponents, Arizona State is the only team with a winning record and the only one without a losing conference record.

This is a difficult spot for UCF coming off the emotional win over BYU, but the Knights are not traveling, they aren’t dealing with internal upheaval, and Jenkins has clearly outplayed Lagway this season while facing stronger competition.

Pick: UCF (Pick ’em)