Horse racing betting: Friday’s Breeders’ Cup card features challenges for handicappers

Horse players can dive into their Halloween goodies early as the international grab bag known as the Breeders’ Cup gets underway Friday with five races showcasing horse racing’s next generation of equine talent.

The two-day “world championships” of Thoroughbred racing at Keeneland Racecourse in Lexington, Kentucky, continue Saturday with nine races for older horses, culminating in the marquee $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic.

First up, however, are Friday’s devilishly difficult races for 2-year-olds, also known as juveniles. These races pose a serious challenge for handicappers, with a strong European contingent adding to the difficulty of assessing lightly raced horses that are still learning the finer points of the sport.

Without Further Ado (he runs Saturday in the Dirt Mile), let’s get to it.

$1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint

5½ furlongs on the grass

There was a time when bettors could focus primarily on the European runners in most Breeders’ Cup turf races. That does not help much when nine of the 12 runners shipped across the Atlantic to compete, as is the case in this abbreviated dash on the lawn.

A filly and the 5-2 morning-line favorite, Libertango looks solid here, having finished first or second in all five starts in Great Britain. She also attracted the services of jockey Flavien Prat, winner of North America’s Eclipse Award the past two years.

At a bit of a price (8-1), I also like the Irish-bred colt Force Noir, who finished a strong second to Orthodox, who would almost certainly be favored if he were in this field, in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket last time out.

Brickyard Belle (3-1) appears to be the best of the U.S.-based runners and looms as a threat if she gets a clean trip.

$2 million Juvenile Fillies

1 1/16 miles on the dirt

Emphatic, who is 3 for 3 in her career, is the 9-5 favorite in this route race for fillies. That is a reasonable starting point for a horse who earned a gaudy 95 Beyer Speed Figure in her most recent race, the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) at this distance and over this track.

The Bob Baffert-trained Miss Monica (5-2), unbeaten in two sprint starts, looks capable of springing a mild surprise if she handles the added distance.

My price play is Domain Expansion (6-1), the flashy winner of the Oak Leaf Stakes at Santa Anita in her first start on dirt for trainer Leonard Powell.

$1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf

1 mile on the grass

At 6-5, Sun Goddess is one of the shorter-priced favorites on the Breeders’ Cup morning line, and for good reason. She has won five straight races, including three Group 1 events in England and Ireland, for legendary Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien, who is tied with Bob Baffert for the most Breeders’ Cup victories with 21. Regular rider Ryan Moore will be aboard.

The main threats to Sun Goddess appear to be fellow Europeans Amusingly (7-2) and Alwaysanangel (15-1), as well as U.S. hopeful and my long shot, Domestic Agenda (8-1). The latter is trained by Chad Brown, who has won this race a record seven times.

$2 million Juvenile

1 1/16 miles on the dirt

Hughes is a perfect 4 for 4, owns a significant speed-figure advantage and has experience around two turns. That, combined with the fact that he is trained by Baffert and has Prat aboard, explains why he is the even-money morning-line favorite and figures to be a single on many bettors’ multi-race wagers.

The Todd Pletcher-trained American History (9-2) seems like the horse most capable of upsetting the expected outcome after winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) over this track and distance.

Baffert’s other runner, Salahudin (6-1), and Coach Pope (4-1) appear most likely to round out the trifecta.

$1 million Juvenile Turf

1 mile on the grass

Surprisingly, in a field of 14 that includes eight European horses, a U.S.-based runner is the lukewarm 3-1 morning-line favorite in the final Breeders’ Cup race of the day.

Trained by Riley Mott, the son of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, How’s AI Today has won three of four starts, including his past two on turf. The most recent was the $731,000 Juvenile Stakes at 1 mile on the turf at Kentucky Downs.

Among the Europeans, the top challengers appear to be Folsom Blues, the 7-2 second choice, and Avec Toi (10-1).

I am skeptical that the speed figure How’s AI Today earned while racing over the rolling terrain of Kentucky Downs will translate to the flat track at Keeneland. I will back Folsom Blues in the nightcap.

Where to watch

Coverage on Friday will start at 10 a.m.on USA Network, Peacock and FanDuel TV before the start of the first Breeders’ Cup race and continues to 3 p.m.

On Saturday, coverage again begins at 10 a.m. on the same three networks before shifting over to NBC, which will air the remaining races from 12:30 p.m. to 3:30 p.m., concluding the headliner of the championships, the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Coverage of the races also will be livestreamed on YouTube, Facebook, X and the Breeders’ Cup mobile app.