College football betting: Underdogs Arizona State, San Jose State should cover

This is the final weekend before the first set of College Football Playoff rankings is released, so it will be interesting to see how things shake out, especially if we get more chaos this week.

Here are my favorite Week 9 college football picks:

Arizona State at BYU (-16½, 48)

Pick: Arizona State +16½

The Sun Devils are taking some young building blocks to Provo this week. Freshman quarterback Jake Fette is expected to start, while freshman running back Cardae Mack earned National Freshman of the Week honors after rushing for 159 yards on 26 carries with four touchdowns.

Arizona State fans were vocal when Cutter Boley struggled while replacing injured starter Mikey Keene, prompting coach Kenny Dillingham to turn to the freshman quarterback. Coincidentally, Mack also delivered a breakout performance.

The Sun Devils appear to be entering a new era, giving the program a spark it has lacked for much of the season. The defense benefited last week from the absence of Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson, but this remains a team with considerable talent. Dillingham and his staff simply have not put all the pieces together yet.

BYU had been playing excellent football before suffering an overtime loss at UCF following its emotional victory over Notre Dame. Overall, the Cougars still have impressive numbers, but they are averaging 1.5 fewer yards per play than they did during non-conference play, and the defense is beginning to face tougher tests.

With a 16½-point spread that accounts for more than one-third of the game’s total, I believe the Sun Devils, now led by the dual-threat Fette, have a good chance to keep this game competitive.

New Mexico (-14½, 41½) at San Jose State

Pick: San Jose State +14½

Relying primarily on defensive production to cover large point spreads is a difficult formula.

Over the past two weeks, New Mexico has scored just 42 points. The Lobos defeated Hawaii by 11 and North Dakota State by five while producing only 186 passing yards combined. New Mexico has recorded just 31 first downs over those two games.

There is no question that coach Jason Eck’s defense has been elite, but the offense leaves much to be desired.

San Jose State’s defense has been fairly average by national standards, allowing 5.27 yards per play in conference games and 5.23 yards per play in non-conference contests. New Mexico has allowed 4.38 yards per play in non-conference games and 4.48 in conference play.

The travel situation is also worth noting. The Lobos traveled to Hawaii, returned home for a highly anticipated game against North Dakota State in front of a raucous crowd in Albuquerque, and now head west again.

The Spartans rank third nationally with 29 sacks and fourth in sacks per game at 3.63. This has been a feisty defense, and I do not expect the Lobos to have much success throwing the ball.

Quarterback Toa Fa’avae has been sacked 15 times in just 87 pass attempts. He has also carried the ball 63 times for 245 yards. We’ll see whether New Mexico’s ground-and-pound approach works again, but asking the Lobos to cover 14½ points on the road is a tall order.

Oklahoma State (-8½, 58) at Iowa State

Pick: Oklahoma State -8½

Maybe Oklahoma State can still work its way into the College Football Playoff conversation, but it would take a dominant run to overcome the early-season loss to Tulsa.

Since then, coach Eric Morris and the Cowboys have lost only once, a 35-32 setback at Houston. On a per-play basis, Oklahoma State was the better team, but the defense struggled to get off the field, and Houston converted three fourth-down attempts.

The conference statistics for these teams are staggering.

In four conference games, the Cowboys have averaged 8.06 yards per play and 530 yards per game. Iowa State, meanwhile, has averaged exactly 5.00 yards per play and 328.5 yards per game.

Defensively, the Cyclones have allowed 7.44 yards per play in conference action, while the Cowboys have surrendered 5.71.

I expected a stronger showing from Iowa State coming out of its bye week, but the Cyclones traveled to Tucson and were routed 39-3.

Running back Aiden Flora has impressive numbers, averaging 7 yards per carry. However, that figure is inflated by performances of 16.2 yards per carry against Bowling Green and 9.6 yards per carry in a 45-42 win over West Virginia. Those two games account for five of his six rushing touchdowns.

Meanwhile, quarterback Jaylen Raynor has completed only 58.9 percent of his passes and owns a 7-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His transition from Arkansas State to the Big 12 has not gone particularly well.

I’m looking for the Cowboys to make a statement in Ames this week.