mavericks who question GOP leadership

There are plenty of ways to tell when a political party is worried heading into an election.

One is polling. President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell to 32% in a September Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest of his career, and sits in the mid-30s in national polling averages. Voters are especially unhappy about the cost of living.

Another came in August, when Missouri voters demolished two priorities placed on the ballot by the Republican-controlled legislature. Amendment 4, which would have made it harder to pass initiative petitions, lost 80% to 20%. Amendment 5, aimed at replacing the state income tax with an expanded sales tax, lost 83% to 16%.

But maybe the clearest evidence can be found on your television and social media feeds.

Republicans are defending their two-thirds majority in the Missouri House this fall, and a series of new ads supporting GOP candidates in competitive districts has settled on a remarkably consistent message:

These Republicans aren’t afraid to stand up to Republicans.

Take Ben Keathley, the Republican incumbent from Chesterfield.

“Ben Keathley is the guy who asks why,” his ad says. “He broke with his own party. Not to be difficult. Because he actually read the bill.”

Or Philip Oehlerking, another Republican incumbent in St. Louis County.

“Oehlerking stood up to the lobbyists. He stood up to his own party bosses,” the narrator says, later adding that he “doesn’t answer to them. He answers to us.”

Then there’s Jeff Martin, the Republican running for an open House seat in Lee’s Summit.

He’s running “not for a party,” his ad says, but for families struggling with higher costs. And “when his own party gets it wrong, Jeff Martin will call them out.”

In St. Charles County, Republican Rep. Colin Wellenkamp is portrayed as “standing up to the big tech lobbyists and his own party’s leaders.”

And in Springfield, Republican Russ Gosselin promises to “always put people before politics.”

The ads have something else in common. They were all paid for by Citizens for a Better Government, a political action committee created this summer. So far, its only listed donor is the House Republican Campaign Committee, which gave $132,000 on Sept. 26.

In other words, the committee dedicated to electing Republicans to the Missouri House, chaired by House Majority Leader Alex Riley, is helping finance ads telling voters that its candidates are willing to defy Republicans.
Democrats are making almost exactly the opposite argument.

Their ads want voters thinking about the party in power. They don’t spend much time talking about being Democrats. Their argument is about Republicans — and what Republicans have done with their power in Jefferson City.

Cathy Summers, running for an open St. Louis County seat, points to the legislature’s repeal of the voter-approved paid sick leave law and its effort to overturn the abortion-rights amendment approved in 2024.

“We vote, they overrule us every time,” her ad says.

Matt Vitale, challenging Republican Rep. Brad Christ, hits the same themes and adds congressional redistricting.

“Every time working people won something at the ballot box, he took that, too,” Vitale’s ad says.

And Mary Ann Perkins, challenging Oehlerking, runs through a list of votes on sick leave, abortion rights and the initiative petition process before telling viewers: “When voters say yes, Oehlerking says no.”

None of this means Democrats are about to take control of the Missouri House.

Republicans won 111 of 163 seats in 2024. Two-thirds is 109, so Democrats don’t need anything resembling a takeover to change the balance of power. A net gain of three seats would end the GOP supermajority.

And Missouri remains a state where Republicans have controlled both legislative chambers since 2003.

But campaign ads are useful because they tell you what political professionals believe voters need to hear. Right now, Democrats in competitive House districts want voters thinking about what Republicans have done with nearly a quarter-century of legislative power.

Republicans, meanwhile, are spending money to tell those same voters something very different.

Yes, I’m a Republican. Just don’t confuse me with the Republicans you’re mad at.