VICTOR JOECKS: What Nevada’s early voting numbers show

Anyone who wants to determine how Nevada’s biggest political races will turn out is going to have to wait. You can learn only so much from early voting data.

Early voting in Nevada ends Friday. Nevada also has universal mail ballots. That means the majority of voters almost certainly won’t be voting on Election Day. While you can’t know how each individual voted, you can learn something by looking at the statistics documenting how many Democrats and Republicans have voted.

As of Wednesday night, Democrats had a significant lead in ballots returned by their voters. More than 223,000 Democrats have voted, compared with around 191,000 Republicans. This gives Democrats an edge of around 32,000 voters.

In keeping with past trends, Democrats are doing very well with mail ballots. Their mail ballot lead is more than 38,000. That is likely to grow as voters return mail ballots through Election Day. My guess is that Democrats will have a 50,000+ edge in mail voters by Tuesday. Officials will also count mail ballots that are postmarked on Election Day. That’s why several Republican candidates in years past who were winning on election night ended up losing days later.

Democrats are running up the score in Clark County, where they have outvoted Republicans by more than 49,000. Even as Republicans have closed the voter registration gap statewide, the Democratic edge in Clark County voter registration is close to 95,000 voters.

While Democrats are in an enviable position, Nevada isn’t seeing a blue wave. The biggest reason Democrats are ahead in voters is that Republican turnout is low. Just 36.3 percent of Clark County Democrats have voted. Democrat turnout in the rest of the state is more than 10 percentage points higher. The number of registered Democrats is based on Oct. 1 registration numbers.

Those aren’t overwhelming percentages, but Republican turnout in Clark County is just 31.5 percent. In the rest of Nevada, it’s around 37 percent.

This leads to the first unknown: Will Republican voters show up on Election Day?

It has happened before. In 2022, around 48,000 more Republicans voted on Election Day than Democrats. That’s why Joe Lombardo won the Governor’s Mansion that year. It’s also plausible that more Republicans will vote on Tuesday. Many high-propensity Republicans have yet to vote. Some simply like to vote on Election Day. But many nervous Republican candidates and consultants sure wish they would vote early.

If those Republicans show up, Lombardo should feel good about his re-election chances.

Regardless, things look pretty bleak for many down-ballot Republicans in gerrymandered districts.

The second unknown is this: Who will nonpartisan and third-party voters support? It’s safe to assume that most Democrats and Republicans vote for their party’s nominees. Nonpartisans are the wild card. So far, just 143,000 have voted, but this group of voters tends to show up late.

Early voting analysis is interesting and fun, but remember this: These numbers aren’t final — and you can change the results. Call or text five friends right now and make sure they have a plan to vote.

Victor Joecks’ column appears in the Opinion section each Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Contact him at [email protected] or 702-383-4698. Follow @victorjoecks on X.