State of the Race: Dembo, Alvarado make final pitches in central Kentucky with party support

NICHOLASVILLE — With just days left before to sway voters in Kentucky’s central congressional 6th District, Democrat Zach Dembo and Republican Ralph Alvarado are making their final pitches with entourages of fellow party members. 

As Republicans nationally batten down the hatches as Democrats are predicted to take control of the U.S. House during midterms next week, GOP House Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota joined Alvarado and U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, the current 6th district congressman and U.S. Senate candidate, in Jessamine County Wednesday to drum up volunteers before they knocked doors. 

Emmer was dismissive of polls showing a Democratic advantage, saying it’s “not necessarily fake, but it’s not right.” Within the 6th District, Democratic-sponsored polls publicly released have shown Dembo with a slight lead. Independent race raters like The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have moved the seat from safe GOP hands to a toss-up. Emmer said polling has changed as people have shifted from using landlines to cell phones. 

“The other thing that has changed — we’re on the Republican side, and even if you’re just right of center, you don’t trust people that are sending you text messages because we don’t want to be in your database,” he said to the room in the local county GOP headquarters, which murmured agreement. 

Barr noted that if Democrats win, that means a change of leadership in the U.S. House. Alvarado would support current House Speaker Mike Johnson, of Louisiana, Barr said, while questioning who Dembo would back. 

“Are you, Mr. Dembo, going to support Hakeem Jeffries? Are you going to support Alexandria Ocasio Cortez? Are you going to enable the extreme far left — the socialists taking over the United States Congress?” Barr said. GOP candidates around the country have claimed Democrats have become engulfed by socialism this election cycle. Jeffries, of New York, is the current Democratic floor leader. 

Asked about who he’d back Wednesday afternoon as he waited to vote early at the Tates Creek library, Dembo told the Kentucky Lantern that was like “putting the cart before the horse” and he’s focusing on the election, which was five days away. 

“No one’s talked to me about that. No one’s requested my support or vote,” Dembo said. “What I’ll say is, anyone who asks for my support, I’m going to need to sit down with and make sure they understand the importance of Central Kentucky and they have the best interests at heart. I’m not going to vote for someone who’s not going to be able to help me in standing up for Central Kentuckians.” 

On the other hand, if the district swings in Alvarado’s favor and Democrats still control the House, Alvarado told reporters he’d draw on his experience as a Republican state senator when Democrats still held the House. The GOP flipped the Kentucky House in 2016. Alvarado began serving in the Senate in 2015. 

“When I was in the General Assembly, lots of bills that I got done that people on both sides liked was often nonpartisan stuff, and I managed to get those bills to both chambers and got a lot of things accomplished for the state moving forward,” Alvarado said. “So, I think I can use that same experience, have relationships with people on both sides of the aisle.” 

The final push

On Thursday evening, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear joined Dembo at a rally at Wise Bird Cider in Lexington. The governor later traveled to a Louisville rally featuring Charles Booker, the Democratic candidate for U.S. senate. 

As polls in the 6th District will close early at 6 p.m. EST election night, Beshear said the outcome of the race could be a signal for the rest of the country that evening. 

“Zach Dembo is going to be one of the first flips from Republican to Democrat,” Beshear told reporters. “He has all the momentum because he’s worked hard for it, and this president and a Republican-controlled Congress is just making life hard for every Kentucky family — Democrat, Republican or Independent.” 

Earlier Thursday, Dembo’s campaign released an ad featuring the candidate and Beshear sharing a beer while highlighting that Alvarado was former Gov. Matt Bevin’s running mate in 2019. Beshear won that election. Alvarado’s campaign issued a flurry of endorsements from Kentucky Republicans, including Auditor Allison Ball and Agriculture Commissioner Jonathan Shell. 

Back in Jessamine County, Alvarado said he felt like his campaign had momentum as early voting began in Kentucky. He claimed victory over Dembo in recent debates at Estill County High School and on Fox56. Alvarado said he also feels his ads are moving voters. 

“I think we’re surging. He’s peaked already. He’s on the decline,” Alvarado added. “We feel very optimistic about the election.” 

According to federal finance reports as of Thursday afternoon, the No Going Back PAC, which is tied to President Donald Trump’s political operation, spent more than $650,000 on ads against Dembo this week. Meanwhile, PACs backing Dembo spent more than $320,000 on ads in that same time frame. 

PACs against Alvarado spent more than $1 million this week on advertising. They include End Citizens United and Kentuckians Not Corruption. PACs supporting Alvarado have spent more than $150,000. 

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Early voting in Kentucky continues through Saturday.