Will MLB enter a lockout? Here's everything to know for the looming work stoppage

A new MLB champion has been crowned, and now the baseball world will eagerly await a return to the diamond.

The timing of that return, however, is very much up in the air.

Major League Baseball owners and the MLB Players Association are a month away from a potential lockout. The two sides can work out a new collective bargaining agreement to prevent a work stoppage, but they are far apart on several key issues in labor discussions.

Those topics have to be negotiated and agreed upon, and they could shape the next half-decade of the league. Teams can’t return to play until both sides sign a new collective bargaining agreement.

When would a lockout begin, how long could it last and which issues are at the center of discussions? Here’s everything to know as the expiration date for the current CBA quickly approaches.

What is a lockout?

A lockout is a work stoppage when the owners of a sports league and the players’ union fail to agree on a collective bargaining agreement before the existing one expires. There are no games until the two sides agree on a new CBA.

Players are barred from team facilities and official activities during a lockout, they do not get paid and their images are expected to be removed from the league’s official website.

On the team side, franchises cannot sign players or make trades during a lockout, which could spark a free-agent frenzy in November.

When does the current MLB CBA expire?

The current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the Major League Baseball Players Association will expire at 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 1. It was signed on March 10, 2022, after a 99-day lockout.

Why is there going to be an MLB lockout?

The MLB and MLBPA are at odds over money, namely a potential salary cap, its impact on the competitive balance of the league and the ramifications for players’ earnings.

The league believes a salary cap would help level the playing field for its 30 ballclubs. The highest-spending team in 2026, New York Mets, had a payroll exceeding $346 million, per Spotrac. On the other end, the lowest-spending team, the Cleveland Guardians, had a payroll below $75 million.

“In order for this game to reach its full potential, we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of what we’re about — that is, competitive balance,” commissioner Rob Manfred said in July. “We need to make sure that fans in markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win.”

However, spending did not equate to winning in 2026. The final four teams were No. 2 (Los Angeles Dodgers), No. 19 (Milwaukee Brewers), No. 28 (Tampa Bay Rays) and No. 30 (Guardians).

The Dodgers’ acquisition of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal ahead of this year’s trade deadline fueled debate about the competitive advantage big spenders can afford. Months later, their three-peat bid came crashing down in the NLCS at the hands of the Brewers, who swept that series and defeated the Rays for their first World Series title.

“It’s further evidence that the league’s purported ‘competitive balance’ justification for a salary cap holds no water,” Bruce Meyer, the acting executive director of the MLB Players Association, told NBC News in a statement ahead of the World Series. “But that’s never been the real reason why they want a salary cap. They want it to juice their profits and franchise values.”

Local revenue shares will also be negotiated. The league wants to equalize those shares among all 30 teams, but it would come at a cost to high-earning teams.

The schedule has also been mentioned in labor talks.

In a recent bargaining session, MLB proposed cutting the regular season from 162 games to 154 games while expanding the Division Series from five games to seven starting in 2029. It also proposed having higher seeds choose their playoff opponent beginning in 2027.

“Returning to a 154-game schedule would allow us to introduce a weekly off-day, which is good for player health, while also creating a new national broadcast window to showcase our most exciting teams and players,” MLB spokesman Glen Caplin said. “A shorter regular season unlocks making October even better for our fans — with fewer weekday afternoon games, a longer Division Series and more opportunities to see the game’s best pitchers on the biggest stage. And allowing the top seeds to select their opponents in the first two rounds would create compelling storylines, intensify existing rivalries and create new ones.”

Other issues in labor discussions include the league’s drug-testing program and players wearing microphones in games for broadcast use.

How many games could MLB miss during the lockout?

It could be as few as zero, but there is no limit to the number of games that could be lost to a lockout.

When is the deadline for a new CBA?

There is no official deadline for the two sides to reach a new agreement, but there are certain cutoff dates where the season and league partners would be greatly affected.

The two sides were able to salvage a 162-game season in 2022 after agreeing to a new CBA on March 10, three weeks ahead of the originally scheduled Opening Day. The start of the regular season was pushed back a week to April 7, the end of the season was extended three days and nine-inning doubleheaders were added to make up for a condensed schedule. Even if MLB cancels early games next spring, they could reappear in the schedule if an agreement is reached shortly after.

Should the lockout persist later into the spring, it could impact the league’s broadcast partners. The Athletic, citing people briefed on MLB’s rights agreements, reported that the league’s national broadcast contracts would extend an additional year to 2029 if 60 or more games are cut from each team’s 2027 schedule. Local broadcasters could feel the affects even sooner if games are lost in the lockout.

Looking back at past MLB lockouts

There have been nine strikes and lockouts in major league history:

1972 MLB strike: Canceled 86 games. The owners conceded after 13 days.

1973 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. Owners and the MLBPA agreed on a three-year CBA and spring training games resumed.

1976 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. Players were locked out of spring training the first few weeks of March. No regular-season games were missed. 

1980 MLB strike: Canceled no games. Players went on strike late in spring training and an agreement was reached before the beginning of the regular season.

1981 MLB strike: Canceled 713 games. The MLBPA went on strike after games on June 11 and games didn’t resume until Aug.10.

1985 MLB strike: Canceled no games. This in-season strike lasted from Aug. 6-7, but the games missed were made up at the end of the season.

1990 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. This lockout destroyed spring training and pushed the start of the season back a week, but the full 162-game season was played. 

1994–95 MLB strike: Canceled 938 games and the entire 1994 postseason, including the World Series. At the time, it was the longest work stoppage in professional sports history (since surpassed by the 2004-05 NHL lockout).

2021-22 MLB lockout: Canceled no games. The first two series of the regular season, plus all of spring training, were originally canceled, but a 162-game season was salvaged when the two sides agreed to end the lockout on March 10.