Dry this afternoon, then storm chances ramp up for Halloween weekend and next week

NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - This afternoon is locked in for a dry stretch across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. High pressure to the northeast is holding strong and keeping showers and thunderstorms away from most of us today. A few more clouds will push inland, but rain stays mostly over the Gulf to start the weekend.

That ridge will finally back off Saturday, and moisture starts streaming in. Look for hit and miss showers and a few thunderstorms beginning around late morning or noon on Halloween and continuing Sunday, as a weak disturbance moves through. None of it looks severe right now, but if you have trick-or-treat plans or outdoor events, keep the Fox 8 weather app handy so you can time the dry windows. Monday dries out again before our next weather maker arrives.

That next system is the one to watch. A strong front is expected to move through early Wednesday morning, with a line of storms ahead of it late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Heavy rain isn’t the main concern, since the line should move quickly. The line is also likely to be late enough not to interfere with voters on Election day.

Wind is the biggest threat. Instability looks a bit marginal, but strong lift and increasing low level wind shear set the stage for a typical cool season severe setup. That means damaging wind gusts, brief spin ups within the line, and even a couple of low topped supercells with a few tornadoes are possible. Tuesday will run warmer than average with plenty of Gulf moisture, then temperatures cool to near average or just below on Wednesday and Thursday behind the front. Details will come into focus over the next few days, so make sure your phone is set to alert you and have a way to wake up to warnings Tuesday night.

The persistent east wind has been blowing for days and pushing water toward the coast, and with the king tides, minor coastal flooding is likely again during high tide through the weekend on east facing shores. Keep that in mind if you live or drive near the water. Boaters, winds of 15 to 20 knots will make for choppy 3 to 6 foot seas on the open Gulf, so small craft should exercise caution.

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