More rain is forecast for southern Colorado elevating flood risk for some areas

Southern Colorado can expect another wave of rain, snow and increased flood risk this weekend after a record-breaking storm caused devastating flooding across the region.

The National Weather Service forecast shows light rain in lower elevations and light snow above 11,000 feet Friday into Saturday with a heavier storm bringing more precipitation Sunday into Monday. The approaching storm is not expected to bring the same record-breaking levels of rain, but with soils already saturated, flooding remains a concern.

Residents should pay attention to the forecast and watch for any notifications from local authorities, like evacuation watches, Eric Petersen, a NWS meteorologist in Pueblo, said. 

“If you see a lot of rain coming in the forecast and you flooded already, I think you need to really be prepared to see at least the potential for higher water again,” Petersen said.

The recent storm, which began Oct. 21, caused heavy rain, falling rocks, washed-out roads and flooding in 12 counties in southern Colorado and the Four Corners region. Archuleta County reported 540 damaged homes Tuesday, but the number could rise. 

A week later, more moisture is coming from the Pacific Ocean via an “atmospheric river,” or a narrow band of concentrated water vapor in the atmosphere, said Brooke Scholtens, a meteorologist for the NWS Grand Junction region. (Meteorologists also call it a river in the sky.)

There’s also a pocket of low atmospheric pressure passing through the region, which works in combination with the atmospheric river to produce rain and snow.

The forecast indicates 1 to 3 inches of precipitation around southern Colorado over the weekend, with more at higher elevations in the mountains. Last week’s storm brought about 2 to 5 inches of rain, with more than 7 inches in some areas. 

Come Sunday and Monday, snow could also fall at elevations as low as 8,000 feet. That could impact mountain passes, including Wolf Creek Pass, which was temporarily closed because of flood damage, Scholtens said. 

“Right now, it doesn’t look as if the flooding is going to be as widespread as the last event,” she said.

The National Weather Service watches peak flow forecasts for rivers in southern Colorado. Each river has its own “action stage,” the gauge height that triggers emergency response in communities. 

The San Juan River, one of the rivers hit the hardest by the flooding, reaches its action stage at 9.48 feet in Pagosa Springs. It is projected to reach 9.51 feet Monday morning, but that could change over time, Scholtens said. 

Each city and county has its own plan for how to handle flood concerns at different flow levels. 

There is also the risk of flash flooding because the soils in the area are already saturated. 

The forecasts are still unclear on which elevations will have rain or snow and whether there will be thunderstorms, she said Thursday afternoon.

Travelers should avoid crossing flooded roadways or areas. It’s difficult to tell how deep the water is or what debris is under the surface. Water can float an average-sized car when it is 8 to 10 inches deep, which raises the risk of being swept off the road.

“Most flood deaths do occur in vehicles,” Scholtens said.

The eastern San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley should also expect light rain or snow Friday and Saturday with a bigger storm Sunday and Monday with heavy snowfall.

“We could easily get a foot of snow at the Wolf Creek ski area and places up in that general area,” Petersen said.

The Rio Grande flooded along its course from the San Juan Mountains into South Fork and the San Luis Valley during the last storm.

Communities like Del Norte and Monte Vista might see high flows again early next week, especially along the Conejos River and the South Fork of the Rio Grande, he said. 

“If you’re in or near the Rio Grande or the Conejos River — down in the valley or up towards South Fork,” Petersen said, “you really need to pay attention to the weather this weekend and early next week.”

Record-breaking rain

For a lot of southern Colorado, the September through October period is either going to be the wettest on record or close to it, Russ Schumacher, state climatologist with the Colorado Climate Center, said.

The precipitation from Oct. 21 to Monday was extreme and rare. 

The San Luis Valley saw a 100-year rainstorm last week with some areas experiencing a 1,000-year storm. Parts of Archuleta and La Plata counties flooded again this year after recovering from flooding in 2025 caused by record-breaking rainfall. 

It’s rare to have historic floods two years in a row, he said. 

“I completely understand why someone would interpret that as being, ‘Oh, it was a 100-year storm. It happened this year. It’s not going to happen again for 100 years,’” Schumacher said. “That’s not actually what it means. What it really means is it’s got a 1% chance of happening in any given year.”

Some of what’s happening this year clearly carries the fingerprint of El Niño, Schumacher said. 

Autumn tends to be wet in Colorado during El Niño, especially in the southern parts of the state. Eastern Pacific tropical systems are more typical, and that has also happened this fall. This year is categorized as a “super” El Niño because water in the Pacific Ocean is so much warmer than usual. 

Mineral, Hinsdale and Archuleta counties, where some of the heaviest rain fell, received about 884,000 acre-feet of rain between Oct. 22 and Sunday. 

One acre-foot roughly equals the annual water use of two to four households. Coloradans use about 380,000 acre-feet per year in cities and towns, according to state data.

About 266,000 acre-feet of water flowed into Navajo Reservoir as of Monday, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. Then there was more flooding farther downstream in parts of Utah and New Mexico.

Lake Powell, a reservoir on the Utah-Arizona border, collects water from the Colorado River and all of its upstream tributaries, including the flood-affected San Juan River. 

The reservoir’s water elevation rose nearly 7 feet and its storage increased about 397,600 acre-feet between Oct. 21 and Monday, according to Bureau of Reclamation data. It’s a helpful boost for the reservoir, which is less than 25% full, but not enough to relieve concerns about extremely low reservoir levels.

The incoming storm could delay some recovery efforts, Schumacher said. 

“There’s already all the damage in a lot of places from the flooding, and so the risk of more flooding is certainly there,” Schumacher said. “Or at the very least, it’s going to hamper some of the efforts to work on the roads and work on the other damage that’s happened.”