Patriots-Dolphins Week 8 preview: Keys to victory, prediction and more

After falling to the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football, the New England Patriots (4-3) will have a prime bounce-back opportunity in Sunday's Week 8 matchup against the Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins (1-5) have arguably the worst roster in the NFL. However, they'll enter Sunday with momentum following their first win of the season: a 28-25 road victory over the New York Jets.

Even with that momentum at home, the Dolphins will have their work cut out for them slowing down Pats quarterback Drake Maye. The 2025 NFL MVP runner-up has totaled 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions over his last four games. He could be severely short-handed at wide receiver, though, with Romeo Doubs on injured reserve and A.J. Brown potentially out due to ankle and knee injuries.

Will Maye's hot streak continue in Miami? Check out our Pats-Dolphins Week 8 preview and prediction below:

Recent head-to-head matchups

The Patriots have won two of their last three meetings with the Dolphins, but going back further in the history between these AFC East foes, Miami has had the edge. The Dolphins have won 10 of 14 matchups against New England since 2019.

• Week 18, 2025 at New England: 38-10 Patriots
• Week 2, 2025 at Miami: 33-27 Patriots
• Week 12, 2024 at Miami: 34-15 Dolphins

Key Stats

Reviving the run

The Patriots' run game has been a major disappointment this season. The issues continued in their Week 7 loss to the Bears, when Maye was their leading rusher with 26 yards.

New England doesn't necessarily need a huge game out of Rhamondre Stevenson to beat the Dolphins, but it would be nice to see the run game take a step forward in what should be one of the easier wins on the schedule. While Stevenson has been effective as a pass-catcher, he has averaged only 3.7 yards per carry this season. TreVeyon Henderson has mostly been a non-factor, and he may not even be active on Sunday after missing Thursday and Friday's practices with an illness.

"We've got to go run the football, we've got to execute," Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said on Wednesday. ... "We all have to be better in the run game, not just one guy. But we'll have to go down to Miami and be able to run it. We'll have to be able to protect and take care of the ball.

Establishing the run will be even more important with New England so short-handed at wide receiver. A.J. Brown (ankle/knee) missed Thursday and Friday's practices, and Romeo Doubs (shoulder) is on injured reserve.

A hard time at Hard Rock

Looking at this matchup on paper, it's hard to picture the Patriots losing to this lowly Dolphins team. That said, history suggests any Pats-Dolphins game in Miami is far from a layup.

New England has a 17-43 record all-time in Miami. It has won only two of its nine meetings at Hard Rock Stadium since the start of the 2017 season.

Patriots' key to victory

Clean up the fundamentals

The Patriots simply have not been a fundamentally sound football team this season, and the issues were glaring in last week's loss to the Bears. New England received 10 penalties and missed 17 tackles in the 30-24 defeat.

Vrabel vented about the tackling after the game:

"The tackling wasn't good enough, not against this team," he said. "We knew coming in, certainly against this team, whether it's (Bears RB D'Andre) Swift, (Bears WR Luther) Burden (III), the quarterback. It just leads to extra yards and conversions. But, we fought. I would say that we need to turn the ball over and tackle better and those are fundamental skills."

If the Patriots clean it up on Sunday, they should have no problem breezing past this less-talented Dolphins team. But if they lose on the margins again, it could set them up for yet another letdown loss in Miami.

Phil Perry discusses A.J. Brown’s multiple injuries and why the decision to trade a first-round pick for him may warrant a closer look

Dolphins' key to victory

Keep Drake Maye in check

This is obvious, and much easier said than done, but Maye might be without his top two wide receivers on Sunday. Romeo Doubs (shoulder) is on injured reserve, and A.J. Brown is trending toward not playing after missing Thursday and Friday's practices with ankle and knee injuries. It's a perfect opportunity for Miami to capitalize.

Prediction

Even if Brown is sidelined, the Dolphins don't have enough firepower to keep up with the Patriots. The Dolphins' only real offensive weapon is running back Ollie Gordon II, and the Pats have had one of the better run defenses in the league so far this season.

Miami's pass defense doesn't scare anyone, and its run defense has been exposed over the last couple of weeks by the Jets and Cincinnati Bengals. I wouldn't anticipate a high-scoring game with all of the injuries, and it may not be pretty, but Maye and Co. should have no problem taking care of business -- even at Hard Rock.

Score: 23-13 Patriots