Week 9 college football best bets, predictions, picks

It’s a bye week for the Hawaii football team, and it’s also time to say goodbye to June Jones, who died Thursday at age 73. Jones is Hawaii’s all-time winningest coach, with 76 victories in nine seasons, including a 23-4 record over his final two years in 2006 and 2007. He was known for popularizing the run-and-shoot offense, which was much more about shooting than running.

Jones learned the run-and-shoot from its creator, Mouse Davis, while playing quarterback for Portland State in the mid-1970s. He went on to play and coach in both the NFL and the Canadian Football League.

Jones is best remembered for his time at Hawaii, where he recruited record-setting quarterback Timmy Chang, now the program’s head coach. An innovator who helped put Hawaii football on the national map, Jones built entertaining, high-powered passing offenses. This weekend’s Wisconsin-Iowa matchup promises to be something entirely different and does not make my list of Week 9 college football best bets.

Ohio State (-6.5) at USC

Lincoln Riley’s tenure at USC appears to be nearing its end, though he could quiet some critics and cool the hot-seat speculation by upsetting Ohio State on what is expected to be a rainy night at the Coliseum.

This may be the ideal time to catch the Buckeyes, who lost star quarterback Julian Sayin to an arm injury during last week’s win at Indiana. Ohio State is expected to move forward with either Luke Fahey or Tavien St. Clair. Fahey is projected to start, though both quarterbacks could see action. In limited playing time this season, Fahey and St. Clair have combined for 20 pass attempts, three of which were intercepted. Ohio State has also dealt with offensive line issues, and its running game has stalled. As a result, coach Ryan Day is likely to employ a conservative game plan centered on getting the ball to wide receiver Jeremiah Smith in as many ways as possible.

The Trojans have the talent to match up with the Buckeyes, but are they tough enough to sustain that effort for four quarters, and is the defense up to the challenge? USC’s defense was not the problem in last week’s 24-7 loss at Wisconsin, when the Badgers managed only 200 total yards. Senior quarterback Jayden Maiava threw two interceptions and was sacked five times. Riley is known for producing elite quarterbacks, but Maiava will need a standout performance in this matchup.

I grabbed USC +7 earlier this week, and Circa Sports currently lists Ohio State at -6.5 (-120). Consider buying the half-point with the underdog at that price. The under on the total of 51.5 also deserves consideration.

Best bet: USC +7 (-120)

Georgia (-12.5) vs. Florida

I’m not thrilled about betting against Georgia coach Kirby Smart after his then-No. 1 Bulldogs were stunned 27-24 by Auburn. Georgia outgained Auburn 440-366 but finished minus-3 in turnover margin as senior quarterback Gunner Stockton threw two interceptions.

Both teams are coming off bye weeks. Florida upset Texas 27-24 before the break, sacking Arch Manning five times. The Gators will need to generate similar pressure on Stockton if they hope to stay competitive.

This rivalry moves indoors to Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta after being played in Jacksonville since 1995. Smart has dominated the series, winning five in a row and eight of the past nine meetings. So why could this year be different?

Florida’s coaching staff appears significantly improved under head coach Jon Sumrall and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. The quarterback situation remains somewhat uncertain, but both Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones are available, and wide receiver Vernell Brown has returned from a knee injury. Georgia is likely to win again, but taking the points may prove to be the smarter play.

Best bet: Florida +12.5

Miami (Fla.) (-14) at North Carolina

The Hurricanes climbed to No. 1 following Georgia’s loss, though there was a scare during a controversial 43-35 double-overtime victory over Florida State on Oct. 17. The Seminoles entered that game as three-touchdown underdogs.

Darian Mensah has been outstanding, completing 81.4 percent of his passes with 22 touchdowns and one interception. Malachi Toney ranks among the nation’s best receivers. Bill Belichick has built his reputation on crafting defensive game plans that limit an opponent’s top weapon. In this case, that weapon is Toney. However, Belichick had elite personnel to execute those plans in the NFL, and North Carolina’s defense does not possess that level of talent.

Still, with Belichick likely motivated after a disappointing loss to Syracuse and Miami perhaps looking ahead to Notre Dame, the underdog appears live in Chapel Hill.

Best bet: North Carolina +14

Oregon State (-6) at Fresno State

Raise your hand if you predicted Oregon State would become one of the best stories in college football this season. Seeing no hands, let’s look at why.

Sophomore Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson has thrown 24 touchdown passes against only two interceptions. His primary target, freshman speedster Jesse Legree, is averaging 22.6 yards per reception with 14 touchdown catches. The Beavers have won five consecutive games and continue to exceed expectations.

Meanwhile, Fresno State coach Matt Entz saw his team lose back-to-back games before the bye week and now faces a critical stretch. The Bulldogs’ stock has fallen sharply, which could make this an opportune time to back the home underdog.

Best bet: Fresno State +6