Democrats have long hopes, and odds, in bid to oust Jeff Van Drew

Democrats are hoping a voter enthusiasm gap in their favor will help them reclaim GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s seat in the 2nd Congressional District, but redrawn lines and the Republican’s entrenched brand make their path to victory steeper than the one Van Drew walked eight years ago.

In the 2nd District, a sprawling one that spans coastal communities in counties like Ocean and Cape May and inland ones in counties like Gloucester, Van Drew faces a challenge from Cape May City Mayor Zack Mullock, who hopes he can flip a seat Democrats have held for just about 12 months in the last three decades.

Michael Suleiman, a former Atlantic County Democratic chairman who is now seeking a South Jersey state Senate seat, said he is optimistic because of the early voting numbers coming out of Van Drew’s district.

“I still think there is a path to victory for Zack, and I’m hopeful for that,” Suleiman said.

New Jersey’s 12 House seats are on the ballot on Nov. 3, as is Sen. Cory Booker (D). As Democrats nationwide aim to reclaim control of Congress in a bid to serve as a check on the Trump administration, the party here thinks it could oust Van Drew as well as Rep. Tom Kean Jr. in the 7th District. The GOP controls three of the state’s House seats.

The Cook Political Report on Friday shifted its rating of the 2nd District from safe Republican to likely Republican.

Democrats have built commanding leads in preelection voting statewide, and as of Friday morning, more than twice as many Democrats had voted compared to Republicans. But the disparity in the 2nd District wasn’t quite so broad.

There, Republican preelection turnout was equal to about two-thirds of Democrats’ total, a gap of just over 14,000 votes, according to a New Jersey Monitor analysis.

That gap remains narrow enough that Republican leaders in the district are confident Van Drew will win a fifth term in the House next week, even if his margin of victory ends up being slimmer than in past years.

Cape May County GOP chair Mike Donohue said he doesn’t see a chance for Democrats to win.

“It would have to be a dramatic Republican sort of collapse across the district,” he said.

Democrats have won the 2nd District only once since Rep. William J. Hughes (D) forewent reelection in 1994. That was in 2018, and Van Drew was the Democrat who won it.

Then a right-of-center Democrat sitting in the state Senate, Van Drew was carried into Congress by the same Democratic wave that swept Mikie Sherrill and Andy Kim, among others, into the House. But he remained a Democrat for only a year after.

In early 2020, Van Drew swapped his party affiliation, a defection he marketed as an embrace of President Donald Trump and a repudiation of a party they said was too far gone.

When Van Drew, who had sat in the Statehouse as a Democrat for 18 years, sought reelection in 2020, he prevailed over Democrat Amy Kennedy by about six points. Fearing losses elsewhere on the congressional map, Democrats prioritized securing other ground rather than improving their odds in the 2nd District.

As a result, during redistricting in 2021, the district gained heavily Republican portions of Ocean County that once fell in the 3rd District, a change that Suleiman said “frustrated the hell out of us.”

“I definitely think in the next redistricting, whether that’s mid-cycle or in the next census, we’ve got to get District Two back to what it was historically, truthfully. It had less Ocean County in it. Somebody’s got to give for that. I don’t know who,” he said, adding he believed Democrats could still take the seat.

Van Drew won reelection in 2022 and 2024 with 58% of the vote. Trump won it by 12 points in 2024.

Van Drew’s long tenure in local and state politics also helped him build a brand. Unlike his challenger, who before his campaign was a low-profile local elected official, Van Drew doesn’t have to spend much to boost his name recognition, an advantage that compounds his already sizable cash lead, Donohue said.

Through Oct. 14, Van Drew had raised nearly $2.5 million, spent nearly $2.4 million, and had $894,792 banked, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission.

Mullock, by comparison, had raised $960,948, spent $855,389, and had just $105,400, and though the liberal super PAC Project 218 reported spending nearly $1.5 million for Mullock or against Van Drew, outside spending overall has fallen far short of the levels seen in districts that Democrats have made top targets.

Democratic Party organizations like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have steered clear of the race, preferring other districts across the country they view as more competitive.

“I thought that was a huge mistake, and my biggest fear is they’re going to lose this thing by two or three points, and it’s going to be ‘shoulda, coulda, woulda,’” Suleiman said. “When the president is playing defense in Alaska and South Carolina, why wouldn’t you take a swing at Two?”