Picking college basketball’s season opener: Villanova vs. Notre Dame in Rome

The 2026-27 college basketball season begins in the region where Villanova’s most famous alumnus resides.

Although Pope Leo XIV is not expected to attend, Notre Dame and Villanova will tip off the campaign at Palazzo dello Sport in Rome, Italy, fittingly on All Saints’ Day. There is hope that the pope will hold a special private service on Saturday for the teams and fans who made the trip, but recent health issues and treatment could interfere with those plans.

VSiN’s 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is one of the best ways to prepare for the season and save time researching transfer portal additions and coaching changes because that work has already been done for you. Be sure to check out the guide, along with VSiN’s college basketball tools, betting splits and more.

Notre Dame vs. Villanova (-7.5, 147)

6:30 a.m. Sunday, Fox

Based on the betting line, it will be difficult for the Fighting Irish to open the season with a victory. Add in Pope Leo XIV and some tongue-in-cheek references to divine intervention, and it could be an even greater challenge for Micah Shrewsberry’s team. This is Shrewsberry’s fourth season at Notre Dame, and it remains to be seen whether it will be his last. The Fighting Irish have yet to post a winning season under his leadership and are just 19-39 in ACC play.

After a three-year absence, Kevin Willard guided Villanova back to the NCAA Tournament in his first season. The Wildcats earned a No. 8 seed but were eliminated by Utah State in their opening game after a one-and-done appearance in the Big East tournament. It was not the finish Willard envisioned, but it did provide a foundation to build upon.

Tyler Perkins (13.7 points per game, 5.4 rebounds per game) and Matt Hodge (9.2 points per game, 3.6 rebounds per game) are the team’s top returners. But Hodge missed the final four games of last season with a torn ACL, as well as Villanova’s three exhibition games this month. Ohio State transfer Devin Royal can create offense off the dribble, while big man Kwame Evans is expected to replace much of the production lost when Duke Brennan transferred to Oklahoma. Brennan accounted for 26 of Villanova’s 50 dunks and shot 66 percent on 2-point attempts last season.

The Wildcats also have room for improvement offensively. According to Bart Torvik, Villanova ranked 301st nationally in free-throw percentage and 284th in free-throw rate last season, leaving valuable points on the court and limiting trips to the foul line. Brennan was a major contributor to those struggles, shooting just 61.3 percent on a team-high 173 attempts. Freshman Acaden Lewis was also an inefficient high-usage player, shooting 27 percent from 3-point range and 58.3 percent from the free-throw line before transferring to Miami. His departure may prove to be addition by subtraction, especially with Darryl Simmons II, a 42.4 percent 3-point shooter and 89.9 percent free-throw shooter from St. Bonaventure, joining the roster.

Villanova’s roster appears to be in better shape than Notre Dame’s entering the season. The Fighting Irish opened last season 10-4, including a 47-40 win at Stanford in their ACC opener. However, defensive shortcomings became increasingly apparent as the season progressed, and Notre Dame failed to win consecutive conference games. Missing the ACC tournament altogether was a significant blemish on the program.

The defensive problems were especially concerning. Opponents shot nearly 62 percent at the rim and more than 42 percent from mid-range last season. It is unclear whether those issues have been fully addressed. Shrewsberry is counting on 6-foot-10 Winthrop transfer Logan Duncomb to provide more rim protection and on the development of 6-foot-10 returner Brady Koehler, who is expected to take on a larger role after playing just 38.1 percent of the available minutes last season.

Shrewsberry prioritized guards and wings in the transfer portal, adding Ethan Roberts (38.3 percent from 3-point range) from Penn, Devin Brown (31 percent) from Davidson and point guard Braeden Smith from Gonzaga. Meanwhile, Shrewsberry’s son, Braeden, shot 40.2 percent from beyond the arc but only 36 percent on 2-point attempts last season while struggling defensively. He played more than 80 percent of the team’s minutes and is likely to shoulder a similar or even heavier workload this season.

Notre Dame vs. Villanova prediction

This is an unusual setting for a season opener, but Villanova clearly appears to be the stronger team on paper, and Willard is the more accomplished coach.

The spread may be somewhat inflated depending on the pace of the game, as Villanova ranked 302nd nationally in adjusted tempo last season, according to Torvik, while Notre Dame ranked 252nd after finishing 313th and 334th in Shrewsberry’s first two seasons.

Still, with the excitement and unique atmosphere surrounding this matchup, a faster pace seems likely, which would favor Villanova.

Pick: Villanova -7.5