More than 42 million Americans have cast early midterm ballots

WASHINGTON (Gray DC) - More than 42 million Americans have cast midterm ballots, and interesting demographic data shows who is voting.

According to the University of Florida Election Lab, early midterm turnout is similar to the 2018 “blue wave.” The lab said enthusiasm appears to be on the Democrats’ side.

Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist, said the U.S. could be headed toward record turnout.

“It’s possible that we will beat the 2018 turnout rate. That was the highest turnout rate for midterm elections since 1914. But there are uneven patterns of turnout,” McDonald said.

McDonald said the uneven turnout levels come from a partisan divide.

“Registered Democrats, unaffiliated, those people who don’t have a party registration, are engaged at the moment. But registered Republicans are not as much,” McDonald said.

Democrats account for 44% of early votes, compared with about 31% for Republicans.

McDonald said the early voting rate has increased this cycle for young voters and minorities.

“Makes me believe that this electorate is going to be the most diverse electorate for a midterm election in U.S. history. We can see high levels of engagement among AfricanAmericans, Hispanics, Asian Americans, but we don’t see as much among whites,” McDonald said.

There are limits to McDonald’s model. Not all states require party registration, and some states do not place much emphasis on early voting.

“So places like Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, they’re going to have maybe a third of their votes cast early. So they’re going to be very much unlike the vote by mail states or other states that have large volume of in-person early voting,” McDonald said.

McDonald said Democrats are building an early lead in early voting, but Republicans will make up some amount of ground on Election Day. Results won’t be announced until after the polls close Tuesday, November 3.