Louisiana’s US Senate race tighter than expected

NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - Louisiana’s U.S. Senate race is being looked at differently by some outside the state.

Republican Congresswoman Julia Letlow and Democrat Jamie Davis, a farmer, are on the ballot, vying for the Senate seat currently held by Sen. Bill Cassidy.

On Friday (Oct. 30), The Center for Politics Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia published a rating change for Louisiana and Minnesota.

For Louisiana’s Senate race, it said it has moved the race from ‘Safe Republican’ to ‘Likely Republican’.

And that is not all. Inside Elections, which has done nonpartisan analysis for decades, has an October rating for Louisiana that is also ‘Likely Republican.’ It used to be ‘Solid Republican’.

FOX 8 political analyst Mike Sherman was asked about the changes.

“Louisiana is a deeply conservative, deeply red state. With the Democratic tailwinds in this election, we were looking at a single-digit race, not a double-digit race,” Sherman said.

Recently in Louisiana, there was robust early voting.

And a Louisiana Secretary of State’s Office graph shows over 500,000 people voted early. The number of Democrats who took part in early voting was over 224,000, while Republicans were more than 207,000.

“After early voting, with this extraordinary surge in Democratic voters led by Black voters, we now have a competitive race in Louisiana, albeit one that still leans Republican,” Sherman said.

President Trump will hold a tele-rally for Letlow on Monday, the day before Election Day.

“With President Trump’s approval ratings in the 30s, many of the candidates in competitive races actually don’t want the president. In Louisiana, for Julia Letlow, the president’s got availability, and she’s trying to fire up the base,” Sherman said. “Clearly, the Democratic base is the one fired up for early voting. She’s hoping the president can get the MAGA faithful out on Election Day.”

The Cook Political Report lists Louisiana as ‘Solid Republican’.

“Republicans have had tremendous headwinds in this race, from affordability being the top issue for most Americans, fuel prices as part of that issue, to unpopular foreign wars, to a president who’s in the mid-30s in his approval rating right now. Louisiana was the one state where it seemed like the Republican advantage was so significant the race couldn’t be competitive, and Julia Letlow has largely towed the party line,” said Sherman.

According to Sherman, that strategy is now in jeopardy.

“It has become a single-digit race, so she has the president coming in to help this final week.” he said.

Whether voter enthusiasm on display during early voting will drive more people to the polls on Tuesday remains to be seen.

“This is an extraordinary movement within the electorate that really merits a lot of attention, regardless of what happens,” said Sherman.

The Secretary of State’s Office’s turnout prediction for Election Day is 48% to 52%.

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