What political polls can and can’t tell you
As Election Day approaches, polls can offer a glimpse of where voters stand.
However, Juan Sepulveda said they should not be treated as predictions of what will happen.
Sepulveda, a San Antonio native who helped run President Barack Obama’s campaigns, currently sits on the Harvard University Board of Overseers and previously taught at Trinity University, offers insight to understand political polling.
“First of all, it’s a snapshot,” Sepulveda said. “It’s for that particular point, for that particular day.”
He encourages people to look at the average of multiple polls rather than rely on a single survey.
Sepulveda said polling has become more difficult because fewer people answer calls from pollsters, which can affect how much confidence to place in a poll, especially when its margin of error is broad.
There is no single margin of error that makes a poll reliable, Sepulveda said, but a wider margin can indicate that pollsters have had more difficulty reaching or measuring voters.
In Texas, several closely watched races, included the race for governor and U.S. Senate, have been within a few percentage points in polling.
Sepulveda said those races are effectively tied when results fall within a poll’s margin of error.
“If I see a race as tied, even though one candidate has been ahead in most of the polls, I tell people it’s within the margin of error,” he said. “It could go either way.”
When races are that tight, Sepulveda says the numbers may influence whether people vote at all, particularly among those who are less likely to turn out.
When voters hear that a race is close, Sepulveda said, they may be more motivated to participate.
“Campaigns are hoping that happens,” he said.
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