Louisiana’s US Senate race no longer a ‘gimme’ for Republicans

For months, the outcome of the U.S. Senate race in Louisiana was considered a foregone conclusion. Congresswoman Julia Letlow, R-Baton Rouge, was expected to easily beat Democratic candidate Jamie Davis, a farmer and one-term Tensas Parish police juror.

But on the eve of Election Day, a GOP victory appears less certain, according to election analysts as well as political advisers and elected officials from both major parties with recent experience in statewide Louisiana campaigns.

Most predict Letlow will still win the Senate seat. But nearly every person interviewed said Davis, a political unknown to most of the state until this year, could come close to victory.

“I think the race will prove to be very interesting,” said Greg Rigamer, a Metairie consultant who has conducted polls in Louisiana for decades including during this election cycle.

Two nonpartisan election prediction websites, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, moved the U.S. Senate race in Louisiana from ratings of “safe Republican” and “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” last week. The change is positive development for Davis because it indicates national analysts think he has a better, if still unlikely, chance of winning the race.

Letlow’s campaign has also appeared to operate from more of a defensive position in recent days following outstanding turnout for Democrats during the early voting period. They accounted for more than 42% of all votes cast in the seven-day period, compared with 39% for Republicans.

The day after early voting closed, a super PAC supporting Letlow launched a negative attack ad against Davis, and President Donald Trump announced he would hold a virtual rally for Letlow Monday.

A win for either Letlow or Davis would be historic.

If Letlow wins, she would be the first Republican woman elected to the Senate from Louisiana and only the second from either party. If Davis wins, he would be the first Black person to hold a statewide elected office since the post-Civil War Reconstruction era 150 years ago.

“Have African Americans been this close [to winning a statewide election] in a long time? I can’t say that they have,” said former U.S. Rep. Cedric Richmond, D-New Orleans, who was also a senior adviser to President Joe Biden.

National influence

Louisiana’s political leadership has become increasingly Republican over the past decade. Only one Democrat, former Gov. John Bel Edwards, has won a statewide election since 2008.

Yet the national political climate heavily favors Democrats this year as prices for gas, food and most other consumer goods remain stubbornly high. Some policies President Donald Trump and Republicans embrace have also hit Louisiana particularly hard.

The U.S. Supreme Court decision in April that cut protections for minority political districts has spurred higher Black voter turnout, which benefits Democratic candidates. The countrywide, bipartisan backlash against data centers, which Gov. Jeff Landry and other GOP officials in Louisiana have championed, could also work in Davis’ favor, according to political experts.

In recent years, Louisiana seemed impervious to “blue wave” elections where Democrats were swept into office en masse. This year could change that narrative, however. Even if Davis doesn’t win the race but loses by a single-digit percentage margin to Letlow, it would show Republicans could be vulnerable next year when Gov. Jeff Landry and other statewide GOP officials are on the ballot, campaign consultants said.

“It definitely shows that we are capable of being part of national trends, even if we don’t change the outcomes that we have,” said Mary Patricia Wray, who ran Edwards’ successful gubernatorial campaign in 2015. She also oversaw U.S. Rep. Cleo Fields’ 2024 campaign win and Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell’s unsuccessful U.S. Senate race in 2016.

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The Davis campaign maintains its candidate can win the race. It released results from a poll it paid for showing Davis and Letlow in a dead heat in the last week of the race.

The Letlow campaign responded to a request for comment about the closeness of the race by sending the same written statement it provided earlier in the week.

“Julia Letlow is going to win because she has a proven record of delivering real results for Louisiana,” it said.

Trump defines campaign

From the beginning, Letlow’s campaign has also largely been shaped by Trump’s endorsement of the congresswoman and, to a lesser extent, her link to Landry. The governor’s top political consultants are working for Letlow on the race.

But neither Trump nor Landry is particularly popular in Louisiana. The Silver Bulletin composite of several polls measuring the president’s approval rating showed him with 37% support as of Sunday. The most recent polling on Landry’s popularity was in March when the conservative Pelican Institute for Public Policy measured his approval rating at 43%.

Letlow hasn’t made many public appearances to distinguish her political views from those of the governor or president, political consultants noted. She also hasn’t participated in public debates with Davis or any other candidate since launching her campaign in January.

“I don’t think she is very well-defined, and she did not try to define herself in this general election,” said Roy Fletcher, a Republican political consultant who helped elect Mike Foster in 1995. Fletcher is not working on the Senate race but is advising candidates in U.S. House races this election cycle.

Letlow also went through a punishing party nomination process to earn the Republican spot on the Nov. 3 ballot. She eliminated the incumbent, U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, in the May primary and then bested state Treasurer John Fleming in the June runoff.

While Davis also went through Democratic primary and runoff elections, Letlow’s were more contentious with more attacks from better-financed candidates.

Fleming, in an interview Friday, questioned whether divisions in the Republican Party have healed since the GOP primary. He said his supporters are still concerned about the nondisclosure agreement Letlow signed related to the Meta data center project in Richland Parish.

“They are ready to stay at home rather than turn out to vote” for Letlow, Fleming said.

Louisiana Republican Party Chairman Derek Babcock said he is confident Letlow will win. While Black voter turnout was high during the early voting period — at 34%, a congressional midterm record for Louisiana —  Babcock said he isn’t worried because conservatives are more likely to vote on Election Day.

Whatever rift occurred during the Republican primary elections has healed over the past few months, he added.

“The most important vote the next senator is going to take is for Senate leadership. We can’t risk having a Democrat,” Babcock said.