Commentary: The only certainty I have in Alabama’s elections

The hardest three words to say in a column are “I don’t know.”

But it’s the only honest approach you can take in a Monday-before-Election-Day piece. Like everyone else, I see Tuesday’s results through a glass darkly. On Wednesday, we will see them face-to-face.

That’s the challenge for all political analysis. You look at past performance; you consider outside conditions, and you make a reasonable guess at what could result. That’s how good pollsters put together a sample ahead of an election.

But no one knows who will show up. No one knows the mix of Black and white voters, or Democrats and Republicans. You can’t say who will stay home and who is willing to wait hours in line to vote, or which political messages worked.

You take a guess. An informed guess, but a guess.

So that’s what follows, rooted in past experience covering Alabama politics. But to be clear: (takes a deep breath) I don’t know.

Surprises in Alabama elections are rare. (Surprises in Alabama politics are not, up to and including a governor’s love for emojis.)  From 2006 — when I covered my first state campaign — to today, I can count all the unanticipated electoral outcomes on one finger.

That’s partly because Alabama doesn’t see much regular polling. Expectations don’t get raised or lowered, rationally or otherwise.

But mostly it’s because Alabama functions as a one-party state. One party has the finances and the organization. As described in 2023’s Allen v. Milligan ruling, one party benefits from the racial polarization of a population that’s roughly two-thirds white. The other organization has places of strength, but it struggles to grow beyond those refuges. Election results aren’t preordained, but they’re generally predictable.

The only real surprise in the last 20 years was Doug Jones’ victory in the special U.S. Senate election in 2017. And that was more unexpected than shocking. Jones ran a disciplined campaign, had a major cash edge, and drew an opponent many Republicans couldn’t stand, even before allegations of sexual misconduct emerged.

Jones is once again on the ballot, this time as the Democratic gubernatorial nominee against Republican nominee Tommy Tuberville. The former senator has run a strong race, but he’s been playing from behind all year.

Still, Tuberville’s campaign has made some missteps, and Republicans are facing some major headwinds on the economy and the unpopular war in Iran. Is that enough to alter the state’s political dynamics?

Well, it depends on who shows up.

Racial polarization and straight-ticket voting have historically predicted Alabama election outcomes better than anything else. When two-thirds of all ballots go to one party or the other — and two-thirds of those go to the Republicans — census data matters more than campaigning. Arguments for or against a candidate or a policy crash onto the hard realities of Alabama’s racial divides.

So if Tuesday’s electorate is 74% white, as it was in 2024 and as two recent Republican polls of the governor’s race have predicted, it’s hard to see how Election Day results in anything but continued GOP dominance of Alabama government.

If it’s 72% white, as in Alabama Democrats’ last respectable showing in 2018, the margins could be lower, but the fundamentals in Montgomery will be unlikely to change.

If it’s lower than that, as a Democratic poll last week suggested, or if racial polarization recedes somewhat, then the results could be more unexpected.

It will be a surprise if Democrats don’t show up to vote on Tuesday. Democratic turnout jumped over 2022 levels in the May primary. The surge took place two weeks after legislative Republicans attempted to redistrict a Black congressman out of his seat, and that wasn’t a coincidence. There are signs throughout the South that Black voters, who tend to vote for Democrats, are coming out after redistricting and the U.S. Supreme Court’s attack on the Voting Rights Act.  

Unlike 2022, a catastrophic year for the party, Democrats have a strong slate of statewide candidates and a decent number of legislative candidates (though many are inexperienced first-timers).

The question is how many Republicans show up. GOP officials haven’t been shy about their concerns about apathy among the base. But on paper, at least, Alabama’s large Republican margins should give the party plenty of room for error. Nearly every Republican candidate has a cash advantage over a Democratic challenger, if they have any opponent at all.

GOP campaigns have seemed to lurch between proposals like abolishing the grocery tax that appeal to a broad swathe of voters and messaging exclusively for the hardcore followers, launching vicious but tired attacks on transgender people and throwing the word “socialism” around more than your local DSA chapter.

Will that get Republican voters out? Will national headwinds lift Democrats? We’ll know shortly. And we’ll see if this is a typical election in Alabama, or something unusual.

It will all depend on who shows up. That, I feel certain of. And if you’re looking for a particular result, you better show up, too.