Harger: Democrats have a 92% chance to win the House. Trump had 29% in 2016

One day soon, your phone will tell you there’s a 40% chance of rain tomorrow. Plenty of people hear that and figure it’ll rain for 40% of the day.

It actually means that on 10 days that look just like tomorrow, it rains on four of them and stays dry on six. Four out of 10 is still enough to grab the umbrella.

Right now, the people who bet on elections are forecasting the weather in the other Washington, and the forecast looks sunny for Democrats.

On Polymarket, a prediction market where people put real money on outcomes (*cough* aka GAMBLING *cough*), Democrats have about a 92% chance of winning the House and roughly a 67% chance of taking the Senate. Bettors give them about a 65% chance of sweeping both.

If you’re a Democrat, that sounds like a party. If you’re a Republican, it sounds like a long night. Neither of you should start celebrating or crying yet.

What a 92% chance on Polymarket means for the House

Picture a bag with 12 marbles in it. Eleven are blue. One is red.

Reach in without looking, and you’ll almost always pull a blue one. Almost. That red marble is about an 8% chance, and that’s roughly where Republicans sit in the race for the House.

The Senate is a different bag. A 67% chance means Republicans hold on about one time in three. That’s rolling a one or a two on a single die. Anybody who’s played a board game knows how often that comes up.

And if 92% sounds like a sure thing, remember 2016. FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump about a 29% chance of winning the White House. The bag held plenty of blue marbles that year. Voters pulled the red one.

Washington’s 2004 governor’s race came down to 133 votes

If your ballot is still sitting on the counter because you figure your vote won’t matter, Washington has a story for you.

In 2004, Christine Gregoire beat Dino Rossi for governor by 133 votes. That’s out of nearly 3 million ballots, after two recounts. A couple of busy apartment buildings in Kent could have flipped it.

It was hugely controversial and led to all sorts of accusations of shenanigans. I’m sure you’ll just be able to look at the comments section on this article once it gets posted. Nonetheless, Gregoire was sworn into office in January of 2005.

Close races happen here all the time, from statewide offices to school boards to city councils. Somebody’s vote decides them. It could be yours.

Use a ballot drop box, not the mailbox, before 8 p.m. Tuesday

Today, the day before Election Day, skip the mailbox.

Under new postal rules, a ballot mailed now might not get postmarked until days later. Secretary of State Steve Hobbs has been blunt about it: Don’t mail it — take it to a drop box. Get your ballot into an official drop box by 8 p.m. Tuesday, and it’s on time.

Lately, some people have worked hard to convince you that voting doesn’t matter or that your ballot won’t count. I don’t buy it. People marched for this right, fought for it, and some of them died for it. The least the rest of us can do is drive to a drop box.

I’ll be watching the numbers come in with you Tuesday night on our election night special, 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. on KIRO Newsradio. Then I’ll be back Wednesday morning on “Seattle’s Morning News” to sort out what happened.

Charlie Harger is the host of “Seattle’s Morning News” on KIRO Newsradio. You can read more of his stories and commentaries here. Follow Charlie on X and email him here. 

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