Pre-Election Day poll predicts Democratic sweep in Rhode Island

Democrats look poised to sweep Rhode Island elections on Tuesday, including gubernatorial candidate Helena Buonanno Foulkes and Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos, in the first election snapshot in three weeks.

The University of New Hampshire (UNH) survey of 753 likely voters puts Foulkes and Matos further ahead of their general election competitors compared with previous public polling, including several surveys that showed Matos in a statistical tie with her GOP opponent, John Loughlin.

Two days out from Election Day, Matos has pulled ahead with a 15-point lead over Loughlin among likely voters. 

Nearly 120,000 voters have already cast ballots as of Monday morning, the last day of early voting. 

Meanwhile, Foulkes has surpassed the 50% mark among those who participated in the Oct. 27-31 online survey, which shows Foulkes with a 21-point lead over independent gubernatorial candidate Ken Block. GOP nominee Aaron Guckian came in a distant third, with support of 8% of survey respondents. The margin of error is 3.5%.

Public polling by other outlets put Foulkes and Block much closer, with Foulkes 9 points ahead of Block as of the Oct. 13 survey by WPRI-TV 12 and Emerson College.

The contest between Foulkes and Block has set off an escalating feud in the last three weeks. Attack mailers sent by the Rhode Island Democratic Party on behalf of Foulkes depicted Block as a duck and likened his policies on wages and healthcare to President Donald Trump. Block alleges the state party spending for Foulkes’ exceeds the limit in state law, filing two complaints with the Rhode Island Board of Elections last week. 

The elections panel has not commented on the complaints or alleged violations.

In his latest TV ad, which hit airwaves one week out from the general election, Block calls Foulkes a “puppet” based on her support from state labor unions. Foulkes’ final advertising push includes more attacks on Block for his opposition to the Affordable Care Act.

The public fighting has done little to warm voters to either candidate. Nearly 4 in 10 voters viewed Foulkes unfavorably — 2 percent more than those who viewed her favorably — according to the UNH survey. The minus 2 approval rating is better than the minus 13 rating for Foulkes in UNH’s September survey.

“As we head into Election Day, the momentum and energy are clearly with Helena,” Angelika Pellegrino, a spokesperson for Foulkes’ campaign, said in a statement Monday morning. “Rhode Islanders are ready for change and she is ready to get to work making life better.”

Block’s favorability rating dips 

Block has lost his once-positive favorability rating. He now stands at minus 1, compared with a positive 12 rating in the September survey. However, just 10% of voters were unsure or didn’t know what to think about him, compared with nearly 1 in 3 in September.

“Helena has run a misleading, one-note campaign of negativity,” Matthew Schweich, Block’s campaign manager, said in a statement Monday. “We doubt voters have responded to that.”

While Foulkes’ support includes an overwhelming majority of registered Democrats. Block carried the independent and Republican votes, with the latter backing Block over party nominee Guckian.

Nearly out of campaign cash and facing public pressure to drop out, including from his GOP primary opponent Elaine Pelino, Guckian’s support overall dropped from 17% to 8% as of the latest survey. His favorability rating also plunged, from minus 15 to minus 46, though 1 in 5 voters still didn’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

Guckian noted that a July 1 UNH survey showed him trailing Pelino by 25 points in the Republican primary. He went on to narrowly defeat Pelino.

“Polls are snapshots,” Guckian said in a statement Monday. “Elections are decided by voters.”

The gubernatorial race also includes independents Jay Gotra and C.D. Reynolds.

Breaking the tie 

Rhode Island GOP officials have rallied behind Loughlin in the lieutenant governor’s race, seeing the former state representative as their best chance to win a state office amid polls putting Loughlin neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbent Matos.

Not anymore. 

Matos now leads Loughlin 56% to 41%, with 4% of survey respondents undecided. 

Yet even likely Matos voters don’t necessarily like the Democratic incumbent. Nearly 7 in 10 Matos supporters said they were voting for her because she was a Democrat, rather than because they liked her as an individual candidate. In contrast, more than 8 in 10 Loughlin supporters said they were choosing him as a candidate, not because he is a Republican.

Loughlin is one of few candidates on the Nov. 3 ballot who survey respondents viewed favorably, with a positive 8 approval rating compared with Matos’ negative 13. However, nearly half of survey respondents did not know or have an opinion about Loughlin, compared with 9% for Matos.

“As always, the only poll that matters is happening tomorrow,” Mark Gray, Matos’ campaign spokesperson, said in a statement. 

Gray highlighted Matos’ work addressing cost concerns, including grocery prices, through a 2026 legislative package, some of which is now law.

“Voters know that affordability isn’t a campaign buzzword for Sabina—she has lived it, and she has put forward nation-leading work on it long before the rest of the country’s politicians pivoted to it,” Gray said.

Loughlin was undeterred.

“I’m grateful for every voter who’s with us, and I’m confident that tomorrow’s results will show our campaign beating the odds —  again,” he said in a statement Monday. “We will finish strong.”  

Matos’ campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment Monday.

Matos has also filed a campaign finance complaint against Loughlin, alleging his campaign manager siphoned taxpayer-funded campaign money from TV ad placements.

In the U.S. Senate race, Rhode Island’s senior senator Jack Reed maintained his decisive lead, with support from more than 6 in 10 voters. Another 3 in 10 backed GOP challenger Ray McKay, while 3% supported independent Michael Bahry.

Regardless of who they supported, survey respondents overwhelmingly believed the Democratic candidates — Foulkes, Matos, and Reed — would win their respective elections. Voters were also unified in their interest in the midterm elections, with more than half of survey respondents across parties saying they had paid “a lot” of attention to the general election and were “extremely interested.”

However, Democrats were more likely than independents or Republicans to discuss the midterms with friends or family.

On issues, affordability and inflation was the No. 1 concern of voters, followed by economic health or financial security. Despite state candidates’ repeated emphasis on bringing change to politics, change in leadership was a concern for just 1% of survey respondents.  

Half of survey respondents were unaffiliated, while 35% were registered Democrats and the remaining 15% were registered Republicans — on par with the split among the state’s 699,000 registered voters. Respondents represented a range of ages, education levels and geographies, and were equally divided between men and women.

Early voting continues through 4 p.m. today.