College football prediction, pick: Midweek MACtion features Buffalo, Miami (Ohio)

MACtion is back as the Mid-American Conference takes center stage Tuesday night with two games on the schedule.

The conference that helped popularize weekday college football will replace Conference USA this week and keep alive a stretch of 61 consecutive days of football.

Ohio vs. Akron and Buffalo vs. Miami (Ohio) headline the night, with ideal fall weather expected across the Buckeye State. Weather will not be a factor, allowing bettors to focus solely on the matchups.

Buffalo at Miami (Ohio) (-6, 44)

5 p.m. Tuesday, ESPN

Both teams enter this game at 3-1 in conference play, making it a significant game in the race for a spot in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on the first Friday of December in Detroit.

Conference records require some context in the MAC. Some teams are among the weakest in the league, while others have proven much tougher. Buffalo’s conference wins have come against Toledo, UMass and Bowling Green, while Miami has defeated UMass, Akron and Central Michigan. The RedHawks also suffered a surprising loss to Bowling Green, while Buffalo’s lone conference defeat came against Western Michigan, the only 4-1 team in the conference entering the week.

Ohio sits at 4-0 in MAC play and faces Miami next week in another Tuesday night showcase. Buffalo would only see the Bobcats in Detroit if both teams reach the conference title game.

The conference remains top-heavy. Typically, five or six teams contend near the top, with a couple of teams in the middle and several programs at the bottom. This season, Akron, Kent State, UMass and newcomer Sacramento State fit into that latter group. According to Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, Miami ranks 128th in strength of schedule and Buffalo ranks 138th among all FBS and FCS teams. There are 138 FBS teams.

You might wonder why Miami is a six-point favorite despite the teams having identical conference records and comparable schedules. The answer is Buffalo’s offense. The Bulls rank 137th nationally in yards per play, averaging just 4.52 yards per snap overall and 4.88 in conference games. Miami averages 6.16 yards per play overall, though that figure has dropped to 5.57 in MAC action.

Miami’s offensive production has largely depended on which quarterback is under center. David McComb posted a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 63.1 percent of his passes. Caleb Heavner has a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 54.9 percent completion rate. Heavner has been the more effective runner, but McComb has been the better passer.

Unfortunately for Miami, McComb has not played since Sept. 26 against UConn, which helps explain the decline in offensive efficiency. Heavner completed 18 of 33 passes for 221 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions last week, arguably his best conference performance. Prior to that, he combined to complete just 14 of 36 passes against UMass and Akron.

McComb is out for the season, forcing the RedHawks to rely heavily on the running game. Buffalo ranks 87th nationally in yards per carry allowed at 4.28. However, the Bulls surrendered more than 5 yards per carry in nonconference action and just 3.5 yards per carry in MAC play. While Buffalo’s overall defensive numbers are unimpressive, the Bulls have allowed only 5.1 yards per play and 327.8 yards per game against conference opponents.

Buffalo’s defense has clearly improved in league action, but the offense has made only modest gains. The running game has improved from 3.91 yards per carry overall to 4.37 in conference play, and coach Pete Lembo has leaned heavily on it, averaging 45 rushing attempts per MAC game. That reliance stems from Buffalo’s quarterback play, as the Bulls’ two quarterbacks have combined to complete just 51.6 percent of their passes.

Running back Messiah Burch is Buffalo’s most dynamic offensive weapon, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Meanwhile, sophomore quarterback Jason Wright has thrown for only 171, 134 and 127 yards in Buffalo’s three conference victories.

Miami’s defense has also improved significantly since conference play began. The RedHawks rank 26th nationally in yards per carry allowed and have surrendered just 2.37 yards per carry in conference games, an improvement of more than a yard per carry from their overall numbers.

That sounds like the recipe for an under.

Pick: Under 44