It’s Election Day in Florida

LAKELAND — Donald Trump’s sagging public approval numbers have led to an expectation that Democrats will have a big night around the country on Tuesday. But the essential question in Florida is whether any sort of “blue wave” makes its way to the Sunshine State?

That didn’t happen during Trump’s first midterm election as president in 2018, when Democrats prospered nationally but not in Florida. And that was when registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by more than 250,000.

Now Republicans hold a more than 1.5 million voter-registration advantage.

But Democrats have been strong in the combined early vote and vote-by-mail tallies, prompting concern among Florida Republicans. More than 5.4 million Floridians have already cast ballots either by mail or in early voting, which concluded Sunday. Registered Republicans have a 2.4% lead in votes cast over registered Democrats, 40.2% to 37.8%. NPA and third-party voters have cast 22% of all votes.

“We need to have massive Republican turnout tomorrow,” Florida Republican Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia exhorted a group of Republicans in Polk County Monday afternoon, on the last full day of campaigning. “Everyone up and down the ticket needs your help to get them to the polls tomorrow.”

In recent election cycles, Republicans have dominated on Election Day, and there’s no question GOP officials believe they can duplicate those results Tuesday.

Democratic Party strategist Steve Schale wrote Sunday on his Substack site that in 2022 (when Ron DeSantis won reelection by 19 points), Republicans won Election Day turnout in Florida by 600,000 voters. He noted that they have about 700,000 more voters who have voted in the past three general elections — 2020, 2022, and 2024 — than the Democrats do.

And in the Aug. 18 primary, Republican election day turnout was double the number for Democrats (60%-30%).

Polk County

Ingoglia participated in Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donald’s campaign swing Monday that, in addition to Polk County, made stops in Pasco, Sarasota, and Lee counties.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Jolly added a stop in Polk Monday in addition to three other appearances he had previously scheduled (his appearance in Brevard County was cancelled due to heavy rainfall and flooding).

Polk County is where DeSantis expressed angst about GOP turnout last week on social media. It’s a district he won by 30 points in 2022, that Trump won by 20 points in 2024, and has nearly 60,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. Going into Election Day, however, registered Republicans had cast fewer than 2 percentage points more than had registered Democrats.

‘Pure tossup’

Florida voters will also choose whether they want to formally approve of DeSantis’ choice of Republican Ashley Moody for the U.S. Senate, or go with Democrat Angie Nixon to serve the remaining two years of the term originally won by Marco Rubio in 2022.

All 28 congressional seats are also on the ballot, although many of the boundaries of those seats changed this year after the GOP-controlled Legislature enacted a new redistricting map designed to add to their ranks.

(Voting rights groups filed a lawsuit to challenge that new map, contending it violates the Fair Districts Amendment approved by voters in 2010. The Florida Supreme Court upheld the map for this year’s midterm, while the legal case will continue).

Donalds leads Jolly by an average of around 4 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

“I expected this race to be close and it is,” Insider Advantage pollster Matt Towery said  in a press release Friday. His poll shows Donalds up over Jolly, 49%-45%.

Jolly told reporters in Pasco County Saturday that he thought the race was “a pure tossup right now,” adding he believed that while Donalds had the money advantage, “we’ve got the momentum.”

Donalds has raised nearly $174 million from his two campaign accounts. Jolly less than $27 million.

Moody leads Nixon by an average six points, 52%-46%, according to an aggregation of 30 individual polls by pollstergraph.com.

Voters will decide three constitutional amendments, all put on the ballot by the Florida Legislature. The highest-profile measure is Amendment 3, to raise the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes and make other changes that would reduce local revenue, with projected annual reductions reaching nearly $12 billion after five years.

Floridians will choose members of the state House and Senate. Democrats are desperate to overcome thes uperminority status they’ve been in for four years.

Races to watch there include the rematches of two special elections that Democrats won in majority Republican-leaning districts in March: Democratic incumbent Brian Nathan versus Republican Josie Tomkow in Florida’s Senate District 14 in Hillsborough County, and Democratic incumbent Emily Gregory versus Republican Jon Maples in House District 87 in Palm Beach County.

Additionally, three Florida Cabinet seats are on the ballot.