LePage, Dunlap race for Maine’s 2nd District still too close to call, likely headed to runoff

The race for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is still too close to call, and appears likely to end up in a ranked-choice runoff later this week. 

As of 12:37 a.m., former Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democrat Matt Dunlap were neck and neck, each with 49.4% with 71% votes counted, according to initial totals from the Bangor Daily News, which gathered totals from municipalities and partnered with Decision Desk HQ to make the call. 

The Associated Press had also yet to call the race, but at 12:30 a.m. reported 72% of votes counted, with LePage leading with 51% of votes and Dunlap 49% of votes.

Both candidates called it a night, departing their respective election night events a before midnight. A spokesperson for LePage’s campaign said the results “generally look good but it is too early.” 

Dunlap’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

With a declared write-in candidate in the race, one of the candidates must get more than 50% of total votes to be named the winner. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the race will go to a ranked-choice runoff — and Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said last month she thinks a runoff in the district is likely. 

However, the Secretary of State’s Office said Tuesday they would not be making any official announcement about the runoff on election night.

It’s not an unprecedented situation for the 2nd District. In 2018, Democrat Jared Golden defeated incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin in the nation’s first congressional election to use ranked choice voting to determine the winner. Since then, Golden has repeatedly defended his seat through the runoff process, mostly recently in the 2024 election against Republican Austin Theriault, which went to a ranked-choice runoff and then a recount.

Golden currently holds the seat, but announced last November that he would not seek reelection. LePage had already announced his campaign, and faced no Republican primary challengers. Dunlap had intended to challenge Golden, and went on to defeat three other candidates in a ranked-choice runoff in the June primary. 

Nationally, Democrats are poised to take over control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate after many previously Republican-held districts flipped in their favor in response to President Donald Trump’s declining approval.

.In September, the Cook Political Report had shifted their rating for the 2nd District race in Democrats favor, ultimately rating the district as leaning Republican. Looking ahead to the tabulations, last-place candidates will be eliminated first and votes will then be redistributed to a voter’s next choice. That’s repeated until one candidate receives more than 50% of votes. Write-in votes for people who were not declared write-in candidates are counted as blanks. 

Based on how long ranked-choice tabulations have taken in the past, Bellows said a runoff could go until Friday of next week.