Mississippi Senate election remains too close to call early Wednesday

Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and Democratic challenger Scott Colom were locked in a tight race Wednesday morning, after each tried to reassure nervous supporters late on election night in a state where Republicans have had a lock on U.S. Senate seats for decades.

Hyde-Smith and Colom remained neck-and -neck and The Associated Press had not declared a winner by early Wednesday morning. Independent Ty Pinkins was pulling about 2% of the vote. 

While the race remained too close to call, Colom remained in striking distance of pulling off what would be an extraordinary Democratic upset. The narrow margin in and of itself reflected what some onlookers called a “bluenami,” with Democrats notching stunning victories in Republican strongholds such as South Carolina and Texas. Most forecasters had rated the Mississippi Senate race as safely Republican. But as results came in it became clear the race would be anything but safe for the GOP, with Colom overperforming in many counties compared to Democrats in other recent races. 

Shortly before 11 p.m. Tuesday, Hyde-Smith spoke to a crowd of supporters at a watch party in Flowood. She nearly declared victory but stopped just short, saying that she would emerge as the winner by Wednesday morning. 

“This is a much longer night than we thought it would be,” Hyde-Smith said. ”But we’re in a good lead right now.”

Hyde-Smith said there was record turnout on the Republican side, despite problems at some polling locations in traditionally Republican areas. She praised her campaign’s efforts, but acknowledged Democrats had given her a challenge she didn’t expect.

“I’ll tell you the Democrats got out and worked, they really got out and worked, and a lot of them showed up today. But not enough of them. I’ll just tell you that right now,” Hyde-Smith said. “I assure you I will continue to be your U.S. senator.”

But that was before Colom’s vote tally surged late night.

Colom briefly visited with his supporters, hugging some of them and saying, “God bless you.”

He said the numbers showed momentum in his direction.

“The results are all trending in our direction. I’m so proud of my state. I’m so proud of the momentum,” Colom said. “One thing I can commit to every Mississippian watching this, everybody in this room. We are going to fight to protect every vote. We are going to make sure your vote counts. We’re not going to allow your democracy to be silenced. We’re going to do everything in our power to protect everybody’s rights.”

Gerard Henderson, Colom’s campaign manager, told a crowd at Colom’s party in downtown Jackson that Tuesday was going to be a “long night.” 

“This is not over,” Henderson said. “We’re going to fight til the end.” 

Back in Flowood, Hyde-Smith supporters balanced their optimism about the prospect of a Hyde-Smith victory with dismay about landslide Democratic victories around the country.

Nancumar Kharmai said he and his wife stayed till the end of the night so that they could see Hyde-Smith speak, and watched with horror as Democrats stormed to victory in states like Texas.

“Texas? Come on. I don’t believe it. But this is what they want, then this is what God will give them because this is crazy.”

State Republican Party Chairman Mike Hurst said he expected Hyde-Smith to pull off a victory and overcome a disastrous performance for Republicans around the country. 

“I think if you look across the country, you see a number of things happen, a number of people responding to whatever the president has done, what Republicans have done,” Hurst said. “And I think you see that in Mississippi as well. At the end of the night, though, we are a Republican state. Mississippians are Republican individuals who are going to vote Republican.”

The Colom campaign estimated that around 10,000 to 15,000 affidavit ballots remained outstanding. The Hyde-Smith campaign said its internal numbers showed she would win. 

Brandon Presley, the Democratic nominee for governor in 2023, was at Colom’s watch party and crunching numbers with several supporters. He told Mississippi Today that Colom was in a better position on Tuesday night than he was on election night at this point in the gubernatorial election he narrowly lost three years ago. 

Mississippi has no runoff in federal general elections, and the winner needs only a plurality. Colom is a Democratic district attorney in north Mississippi, and Hyde-Smith is seeking a second full term. 

The Mississippi Democratic Party filed a lawsuit against the DeSoto County circuit clerk shortly after polls closed at 7 p.m. on Tuesday. The party argued in court documents that some polling precincts opened late and some ran out of ballots. 

The party asked for certain precincts to stay open an additional hour, but as of Tuesday night, well after polls had closed, a judge had not been assigned to the case. 

Before results in Mississippi started coming in, former Republican Gov. Haley Barbour made his way into the ballroom at Hyde-Smith’s victory party and reflected on the gap between Tuesday’s results and Trump’s 24-point margin victory in Mississippi just two years ago. Trump has told voters to pretend he was on the ballot Tuesday.

“He isn’t winning by 24 points today,” Barbour said.