Democrats on track to grow Oregon Senate majority

Democrats held significant leads in two competitive Oregon Senate districts, while Republicans led by slim margins in two others Tuesday night.

Half of Oregon’s 30 Senate seats were up for grabs this election, but few are competitive. If current margins hold, Democrats would have 19 of 30 seats in the 2027 session, above the three-fifths supermajority needed to pass new taxes or increase existing ones without Republican support.

Shortly after 9:30 p.m. Tuesday, Democratic former Salem City Councilor Virginia Stapleton was 8.5 points ahead in her race to replace Republican Sen. Kim Thatcher in Salem, and Democrat Denise Krause was 12 points ahead in the race to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeff Golden.

Republicans state Rep. Jeff Helfrich and Clatsop County Commissioner Courtney Bangs held narrow leads in two other open seats held by Republicans.

Political analysts told the Capital Chronicle ahead of the election that outcomes favoring Democrats would indicate voters’ dissatisfaction with Republican lawmakers in Washington, D.C., while outcomes favoring Republicans would indicate voters’ were more dissatisfied with the Democratic majority in Salem. In many of the most competitive districts, nonaffiliated voters are a larger block than registered Democrats or Republicans.

As Democrats experienced a national blue wave, the most competitive races Tuesday proved to be districts Republicans had won by comfortable margins in 2022. Former Republican state Sen. Daniel Bonham won the 26th Senate District that stretches from The Dalles to Canby by nearly 20 points in 2022, but Helfrich led Democrat Nicole Bassett by just more than 1,000 votes or less than 3 percentage points Tuesday.

Sen. Suzanne Weber, R-Tillamook, won her 2022 election in the 16th Senate District on the North Coast by 13 points. With Weber barred from running for reelection because of her participation in a six-week walkout, Bangs led Democrat and former state Sen. Rachel Armitage.

Armitage previously represented the district for a year, when local county commissioners appointed her to finish out the term of former state Sen. Betsy Johnson who resigned to run for governor. Armitage did not run in 2022.

Observers expected the 11th Senate District in north Salem, Keizer and Woodburn to be one of the closest races, but Stapleton led former Republican state Rep. Tracy Cramer by 8.5 points. If Stapleton’s lead holds, it would be the second loss in a row for Cramer.

In the 3rd Senate District in Southern Oregon, health care consultant and Democrat Denise Krause led Republican Brad Hicks, a former longtime executive of the Chamber of Medford and Jackson County, by 12 points. A third candidate in the race, Clay Bearnson, a former Medford city councilor and bar owner who ran under the Independent Party of Oregon and the Pacific Green Party, had earned just 3.6% of the vote.

All incumbents had strong leads in their races, as did Democrat Myrna Muñoz, who unseated incumbent Democratic Sen. Janeen Sollman in the May primary.

In the remaining open race, Republican and former California Democrat Jack Tibbetts is on track to replace Republican Cedric Hayden, who was barred from running for reelection. Tibbetts, a farmer and small business owner who served as a Democrat for five years on the Santa Rosa City Council in California before moving to Oregon in 2021, upset state Rep. Jami Cate, a farmer from Linn County, in the May primary.