Commentary: Amid big changes, Oregon goes steady-state

Across red and purple states, the election news Tuesday was big: Massive changes in places where few would have expected them, flips of control of both sides of the Congress.

As for Oregon, well, it went along its usual path.

You could even say that the national election results may mean more change for Oregon than its own state results did.

The big Oregon contest this year, the one that generated serious effort on both the Democratic and Republican sides, was the race for governor. In the second faceoff between incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek and the Republican challenger Christine Drazan, the result was close to what it was in 2022. Even the roster of counties won by Kotek is remarkably similar.

One question sometimes asked about an incumbent officeholder seeking re-election is, did they lose any major base of support — any large group of votes — since the last election? On the evidence of election night, the answer seems to be negative in Kotek’s case, which makes her win likely and expected.

Oregon’s executive branch stays where it has been.

Six U.S. House seats were up for election, along with one of the state’s U.S. senators, Jeff Merkley. All of the incumbents were easily reelected. As this was written (before all counties had fully reported), the state’s unofficial vote count put Merkley’s win at 57% — which is what it was in 2020, and which is one point higher than in 2014. You might call that consistency.

Nor did the Oregon Legislature, where about half of the Senate and all of the House was on the ballot, see much change, though Democrats are poised to narrowly increase their existing supermajorities.

One legislative contest stood out as a battle of special interest, in the 32nd House District, where Rep. Cyrus Javadi, elected previously as a Republican, ran this time as a Democrat. You might almost say the voters in that Tillamook-Clatsop area split the difference: They changed their party representation from 2024 and retained Javadi, in turning back a Republican challenger. A closer look will be needed to determine what if anything this says about partisan politics on the north coast.

In Oregon, on the basis of its elections within the state, life goes on.

But there are some larger impacts to what happened on Tuesday.

The biggest and most immediate of those concern the state’s two U.S. senators. Ron Wyden is the second-most senior Democratic senator (after Washington’s Patty Murray) and he probably could almost have his pick of top chairmanships. Having previously served as chair of Finance, he may well return to it, and in current Washington politics it may be as significant a spot as any. Merkley is currently the ranking (senior) Democrat on the Budget Committee, and he might wind up as chair there — or elsewhere.

Oregon’s senators have reached the seniority and accompanying clout that Mark Hatfield and Bob Packwood had decades ago, and now they have the Senate majority to wield gavels.

Oregon’s Democratic House members mostly are newer among House membership, but their reelections, especially with so many changes from around the country this year, have meant they move up the influence ladder too. The most notable example is likely to be Suzanne Bonamici, in whose case a subcommittee chair seems likely for the coming term. 

With the change in partisan clout in Washington may come some change in the relationship between Oregon and the Trump Administration. Maybe.

In all, this may be a case of change coming more through the impact of external elections than internal ones.