Arizona Democrats poised to flip two U.S. House seats

Arizona Democrats held strong leads early Wednesday in two of the state’s most competitive congressional districts, with JoAnna Mendoza and Amish Shah both poised to defeat their Republican opponents. 

And, in a surprise, a Democrat was nursing a 9,000-vote lead in a deep red district against former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.

As of just after midnight on Wednesday, Mendoza was leading Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani by 12 percentage points, leaving her poised to take over representing Congressional District 6, the state’s most competitive district.  

In Congressional District 1, Arizona’s wealthiest district, Shah had a 12 point lead on his Republican opponent Jay Feely. If he maintains that lead, he’ll upend years of Republican control of the district. 

National Democrats targeted both districts as opportunities to help flip control of the chamber, but as of early Wednesday, before any of the Arizona races were called by The Associated Press, Democrats had already secured enough seats to take control of both the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. 

A growing dislike of President Donald Trump and the fiscal impacts of his administration’s policies took center stage as Democrats successfully used that unpopularity against Republican incumbents across the country. 

Congressional races in two of the Grand Canyon State’s previously ruby-red congressional districts were neck-in-neck as of early Wednesday. 

In the contest to replace GOP gubernatorial nominee Andy Biggs in Congress, Lamb was trailing Democrat Elizabeth Lee by four points. Congressional District 5 includes parts of Queen Creek, Gilbert and Mesa. 

The Lamb campaign took major hits from reporting by The Arizona Republic, which aired allegations that he threatened women, sent sexually explicit texts and made racist comments. Lamb is a married member of the Church of Latter-Day Saints who has campaigned on a platform of traditional values. He was also endorsed by President Donald Trump.

In Arizona’s Second Congressional District, Democrat Jonathan Nez, the former president of the Navajo Nation, narrowly led incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Eli Crane in the race for Arizona’s second congressional district by less than half of a percentage point. 

Two years ago, Crane easily defeated Nez by nine percentage points, but polling showed the distance between the two had significantly narrowed this cycle, with a poll commissioned by Nez’s campaign in August showing him in a statistical tie with Crane in a district where Republicans have an 11-percentage point voter registration advantage. Other polling since then has shown them neck-in-neck, with Crane slightly favored to win.