Missouri Republicans suffer biggest electoral setback in a generation

Republicans still control Missouri politics. But after Tuesday’s election, their grip on state government looks considerably less secure.

Democrats ended Republican supermajorities in both legislative chambers, picked up 16 Missouri House seats and ousted a seven-term Republican congresswoman. Voters rejected a renewed abortion ban, defeated a congressional map backed by President Donald Trump and imposed new restrictions on lawmakers’ ability to overturn citizen initiatives.

The results raise questions about how a Republican Party accustomed to overwhelming legislative majorities will govern when lawmakers return to Jefferson City in January — and whether Tuesday represents a temporary backlash or something more enduring.

By a preliminary count, Democrats won 68 of the 163 Missouri House seats, a gain of 16 from 2024. That leaves Republicans with 95 seats, their lowest total since the 2008 election, when they won 89. Democrats flipped 16 Republican-held districts while Republicans failed to capture a single Democratic seat, despite Republican House campaigns raising $17.7 million compared with $7.1 million for Democrats.

Missouri voters reject Amendment 3, preserving abortion rights approved in 2024

In the Senate, Democrats won the two seats needed to end another Republican supermajority. State Rep. Betsy Fogle captured a Springfield-based district Republicans had held for more than 80 years. In eastern Jackson County, state Rep. Keri Ingle defeated House Speaker Jon Patterson.

Republicans can still write budgets, pass legislation and set the agenda without a single Democratic vote. But they can no longer override vetoes or make most new laws take effect immediately through emergency clauses without help from across the aisle.

The geography of the victories challenged assumptions about where Democrats can compete. The party won three House seats in St. Charles County, where it had gone two decades without a House victory, and captured an open seat in Cass County. In Cole County, home of the state Capitol, Democrat Suzanne Luther defeated Republican Shane Kampeter by just 189 votes.

Republican losses extended to Congress, where Democrat Fred Wellman defeated seven-term U.S. Rep. Ann Wagner in suburban St. Louis. Wellman won St. Louis County by 14 points and cut Wagner’s margin in St. Charles County from roughly 16,000 votes in 2024 to about 4,000.

His victory gave Missouri’s bitter redistricting fight an unexpected ending, at least for now. Trump and Republican lawmakers sought new congressional boundaries that could produce a 7-1 GOP delegation. A referendum campaign and court rulings kept the existing 6-2 map in place for Tuesday’s election. Voters then rejected the proposed replacement through Proposition A, 62% to 38%, and elected a 5-3 delegation under the old lines.

The ballot measures showed how consistently Missourians have broken with the Republican Legislature. Two years after narrowly approving constitutional abortion protections, they rejected an attempt to repeal them. Amendment 3, which would have restored a ban on most abortions, received about 44% support despite an organized campaign backed by churches and Republican officials, including Gov. Mike Kehoe. His wife, Claudia, was the campaign’s treasurer.

That followed overwhelming defeats in August for two other Republican priorities: an amendment making citizen initiatives harder to pass and another allowing lawmakers to replace Missouri’s income tax with expanded sales taxes. Kehoe made the income tax plan a centerpiece of his agenda and called the 2025 special session that produced both the initiative measure and the congressional map. Each effort has now failed at the ballot box.

Missouri voters reject Trump-backed congressional map, dealing GOP redistricting defeat

On Tuesday, voters went further, approving Amendment 6 with roughly 60% support. It requires extraordinary legislative majorities and another statewide vote before lawmakers can change voter-approved initiatives or revive laws rejected by referendum. Legal challenges remain possible. But three months after more than 80% of voters rejected making initiatives harder to pass, a clear majority voted to make them harder for lawmakers to undo.

Eight years ago, the last national Democratic wave left Missouri’s Republican legislative supermajorities intact. Voters raised the minimum wage, rejected right-to-work and approved the Clean Missouri ethics and redistricting overhaul. But they also ousted Democratic U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill and reelected Wagner.

This time, opposition to Republican policies coincided with significant losses for Republican candidates.

Missouri was also part of a national backlash. Democrats captured control of Congress, with Senate breakthroughs in traditionally Republican states including Texas and Kansas. Next door in Iowa, Republicans lost three of four U.S. House seats. That broader wave complicates any claim that Missouri’s results were driven primarily by disputes with state lawmakers.

Nor was Tuesday a wholesale rejection of Republicans. State Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick won reelection, though by roughly three points after winning by nearly 22 in 2022. Republicans retain the governorship and both legislative chambers, and Democratic gains were concentrated largely in cities and suburbs rather than rural Missouri.

One election cannot establish a lasting realignment. But the consequences are immediate: Kehoe and Republican lawmakers return in January facing falling revenues, pressure on school and healthcare budgets and an electorate newly willing to deny them seats as well as policy victories.

For years, Republicans could assume that losing a ballot measure did not necessarily threaten their grip on power. Tuesday offered the clearest evidence yet that the two can no longer be treated as separate questions.