After supporting Trump in 2024, Texas border counties fueled Democrats’ big night

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Texas voters living along the Mexico border led the turnout surge that powered Democrats to historic victories, a Texas Tribune analysis found.

Border counties, stretching from El Paso to Cameron, saw an 8% jump in overall voter turnout compared to 2022 — the biggest increase among regions statewide.

And those voters overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates.

Tuesday’s Democratic victory abruptly ended the temporary inroads Republicans had on the state’s southern tip. Those largely Hispanic counties — a longtime Democratic stronghold in red Texas — caught the nation’s attention when, in 2024, they supported President Donald Trump and his promise to close the southern border and invoke a mass deportation program.

Trump’s 2024 victory inspired Texas Republicans to redraw political boundaries in South Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley region, to flip Democratic-controlled seats. That plan backfired. Republicans lost two seats, including Congressional Districts 15, which includes McAllen, and 23, which stretches from San Antonio to El Paso.

State Rep. James Talarico, who led the Democrats at the top of the ticket Tuesday, won nine of the counties Trump won along the border two years ago.

And Talarico’s margin across Texas’ 16 border counties was about 4 points better than Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 margin. Talarico won by nearly 45 points in border counties, while O’Rourke led by more than about 40 points in the 2018 election, according to unofficial election results data from the Associated Press.

Large gains among counties in the Rio Grande Valley and Laredo area helped contribute to this shift. Zapata County — south of Laredo — which O’Rourke won by nearly 26 points, saw the largest shift among border counties, swinging more than 15 points toward Democrats.

Jeronimo Cortina, a political scientist at the University of Houston, said Democrats lost the region to Trump in part because the party “did not invest significantly in the communities to create a solid base.” Democrats turned it around on Tuesday, paying closer attention to the southern tip.

He said the shift could be attributed to Trump’s failure to deliver on the economic promises he campaigned on.

“The promises that President Trump made were very clear, right? Gas prices are going to go low, grocery prices are going to go low, and that did not materialize,” he said. “People are hurting, and and and that is very very very powerful.”

And in South Texas, “immigration is the economy,” said Álvaro Corral, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley.

“Housing projects came to a grinding halt because of ICE raids — that has a dollars and cents downstream effect in the local economy,” he said. “Local business leaders in the Rio Grande Valley who are not known for being bleeding heart liberals were coming out quite forcefully and putting their voice out there to say that something’s got to change.”

Corral said the candidate’s coordination in visiting the border strengthened their support. State Rep. James Talarico, who won a U.S. Senate seat Tuesday, not only visited the Valley multiple times, but he also often stood alongside Congressional District 15 winner Bobby Pulido, a popular and familiar figure in the community.

“Bobby Pulido sort of introduced James Talarico to South Texas voters and to the Rio Grande Valley,” Corral said.

He added that since state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who beat Greg Abbott for the governor’s mansion, is a Latina raised in Brownsville, she had the upper hand from the start.

“That chance to have a first Latina governor and to have that Latina governor be from the Rio Grande Valley, obviously, was probably a sort of emotional and local pride sort of element to the race.”

Cortina said the social issues that also gave Trump an edge in 2024, such as LGBT+ rights, did not resonate this year.

“It’s the economy, the economy, the economy, and quality of life,” he said. “Your personal values do not change, right? Whatever you believe, you believe. But once again, you cannot pay the bills based on beliefs, based on values. You cannot fill up your tank right based on values.”

LUPE Votes, the political arm of community nonprofit La Union Del Pueblo Entero, were on a mission to get infrequent or new voters in the Rio Grande Valley out to the polls.

In August, the group launched a canvassing campaign that ran through Election Day. During that time, they knocked on 90,000 doors and reached more than 100,000 people, said Michael Mireles, director for civic engagement for LUPE Votes.

“South Texas won because of our members in the colonias, because of the people who had never been given an opportunity to talk about politics, or who were never asked ‘What are the issues that impact you?’” he said. “Those were the people that made a difference in this election and made the outcome what it is today.”

The Valley’s swing to blue is significant, Cortina said, but it’s going to take a lot of work for the Democrats’ support in South Texas to hold.

“Democrats right now, especially in the state of Texas, are at the starting line,” he said. “They have a very short-term window to deliver.”

This is a developing article.

Disclosure: The University of Texas – Rio Grande Valley and University of Houston have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune within the past five years. The Texas Tribune is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in our journalism. Find a complete list of them and more information about our financial and disclosure policies here.