Repudiation of Trump, economic pain drove Democrats to victory in the House: Voter Poll analysis

Democrats are projected to retake the House for the first time since 2020.

Democrats are projected to retake the House for the first time since 2020 in an election where President Donald Trump’s shadow loomed large over the proceedings.

Democrats made small but substantive improvements in their share of the vote across many groups and benefited from Trump’s deep unpopularity and voters' negativity about the economy.

According to ABC News Voter Polls, about 6 in 10 Americans who voted on U.S. House races disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, including 54% who strongly disapprove. That's higher even than the share who strongly disapproved of President George W. Bush in House exit polling in 2008 when Barack Obama was elected president (51%).

Voters who strongly disapproved of Trump supported Democrats for the House by a 90-percentage point margin. Just 2 in 10 voters in U.S. House races strongly approved of Trump and they supported Republicans by a 96-point margin.

About two-thirds of those who voted in House races say Trump has the wrong priorities and a similar share says he prioritizes his own personal interests over those of the country. These voters chose Democrats for the U.S. House over Republicans by 70 percentage points and 74 points, respectively, according to ABC News voter polling.

More Americans who voted in U.S. House races say their vote was to express opposition to Trump rather than support for him, 44% to 16% and 97% of them voted for Democrats.

Three-quarters of these voters rated the state of the economy negatively and they supported Democrats by 42 percentage points. Among the roughly one-third of voters who rated the economy poorly, they supported Democrats by 72 points.

Seven in 10 Americans who voted in House races say the U.S. economic system generally favors the wealthy rather than being fair to most Americans and they supported the Democrats by about a 3-to-1 margin.

More say their family’s financial situation has gotten worse than better in the past two years by more than a 2-to-1 margin and they largely supported Democrats.

About 8 in 10 Americans who voted in House races felt inflation had caused their family severe or moderate hardship in the past year, with most of them supporting Democrats. And 63% of House voters blamed Trump’s policies for higher than usual prices rather than factors outside of his control, according to ABC News Voter Polls.

The Democratic Party held an advantage in favorability over Republicans -- 47% vs 40% -- and also won a 28-percentage point lead among the 15% of "double haters" who are unfavorable of both parties, per ABC News Voter Polls.

ABC News Voter Polls find that Democrats improved on their typical wide lead among voters in House races who are under 30, winning roughly three quarters of their votes today, compared with just over half in 2024.

About a third of voters don't identify with either major political party but they backed Democrats in U.S. House races by a 58% to 38% margin, according to ABC News Voter Polls.

In the previous two elections, independent voters split roughly evenly between the two parties, according to Edison Research.