NFL betting, prediction: Don’t underestimate Ravens offense vs. Jaguars

Thursday night’s prime-time meeting between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens will be played without Lamar Jackson, who is set to undergo thumb surgery. That makes things even more interesting than usual.

Jaguars vs. Ravens analysis

Our betting splits pages likely won’t surprise anyone this week. As of publication Tuesday afternoon, 83 percent of tickets at DraftKings were on Jacksonville, and there was also a small majority of tickets on the Jaguars at Circa Sports. It seems casual bettors have no interest in backing the Ravens’ new quarterback room.

With Jackson and Tyler Huntley both dealing with injuries, that room now consists of Joe Fagnano, Kedon Slovis and Austin Reed. And the Ravens just traded for Arizona Cardinals starter Jacoby Brissett. That group is more random than Peter Klaven’s groomsmen in “I Love You, Man.”

Baltimore’s passing game is unlikely to be explosive this week. However, it feels like a mistake to completely write off the Ravens.

Baltimore still has Derrick Henry to lean on. The 32-year-old has lost some explosiveness, but he’s still physical enough to wear down opposing defenses. The Ravens could ride the veteran, hoping to grind out a win in a low-scoring game. Doing so against Jacksonville should be a little easier this week, as the Jaguars will be without DaVon Hamilton, while Travon Walker is dealing with a rib injury.

Of course, Baltimore will need to be sound defensively to win a throwback-style game. The Ravens are a middle-of-the-pack defense this season, ranking 16th in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.077) and 22nd in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.078).

That said, this isn’t the Baltimore defense of old. It should also be noted that Trevor Lawrence, like most quarterbacks, isn’t as sharp on the road.

The Jaguars’ offense also benefits greatly from a defense that creates plenty of turnovers, often setting Lawrence and Co. up with favorable field position. That said, if Baltimore’s offense can avoid giveaways, the defense should have a much better chance of slowing down Liam Coen’s offense.

It’s also worth mentioning that the Ravens remain talented offensively. They’re going to give Henry every opportunity to win this game on the ground, but they’ll still have weapons such as Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews available when they do throw the ball. Declan Doyle has also proven to be a strong play-caller, so there’s a chance he’ll put together a solid game plan, even with everything working against him.

I just don’t think Baltimore should be getting more than a touchdown at home. This team still has a lot to play for, and winning night games at M&T Bank Stadium is always difficult for visiting teams.

Jaguars vs. Ravens Player props

Lean: Henry over 17.5 rushing attempts (-127)

As always, I suggest checking out our OptaAI player prop projections. While I’m not playing any player props in this game, we have VSiN Pro subscribers covered with hundreds of Week 9 NFL player prop projections, including several for this Thursday Night Football matchup.

If I had to play something, I’d take the over on Henry’s rushing attempts. It has been three games since Henry’s last 18-carry performance, but we should see a real commitment to getting him touches here. It’s Baltimore’s clearest path to victory.

Jaguars vs. Ravens pick

If you shop around, you should be able to find favorable numbers on Baltimore at +10 or +10.5. That’s exactly what I’m doing here, and I’m also putting a quarter-unit on the moneyline at +410.

The NFL is a strange league. When something seems obvious, we often see the opposite happen. Good teams also find ways to overcome short-term struggles, and I believe the Ravens can do exactly that.

While I’m not expecting a masterpiece from the Baltimore offense, I think the Ravens can avoid embarrassment and keep this game competitive.

Bet: Ravens +10.5 (-127) and Ravens moneyline (+410, 0.25 units)