NFL betting, predictions: Saints WRs good bets for touchdown tickets

The NFL season keeps chugging along, and players keep finding the end zone. Some even do it by scoring the first touchdown of the game. That’s the goal here, and what we’re trying to identify in hopes of cashing some first-touchdown scorer tickets.

There are some really interesting matchups this week and a few opportunities to correctly identify the team that scores first. From there, it’s a bit of a crapshoot, but the biggest step is figuring out which team’s players to target.

I’ve been tracking this all season with the First Touchdown Tracker, as well as over the past several seasons, and here are the conclusions I’ve come to for Week 9.

New Orleans Saints: Chris Olave +850, Devaughn Vele +1100

It’s pretty simple here. Shedeur Sanders is starting for the Browns, who have been terrible in this area with Deshaun Watson under center.

Olave has eight red-zone targets and Vele has seven. The two have combined for 15 of the Saints’ 18 red-zone targets this season. The Browns don’t generate much pressure, so Tyler Shough should have more time to get rid of the football in this matchup. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Shough has the seventh-lowest average time to throw this season, yet he has still tossed 13 touchdowns. I think this is a great matchup for him.

Miami Dolphins: Ollie Gordon II +750, Caleb Douglas +1800, Kevin Coleman Jr. +5500

I’m going to take a couple of shots here, as the Dolphins have been better in this category lately. Jeff Hafley was the Packers’ defensive coordinator, so he knows the Lions’ personnel and scheme well. That could be a significant advantage if Miami takes some time to settle into the game.

Gordon has scored three of Miami’s first-team touchdowns, all coming in consecutive weeks. Wide receivers have scored first since the bye week, as the Dolphins are 2-for-2 in that regard following their Week 6 rest and recovery break. Still, it’s hard not to look at the primary running back at this price.

Four of the five shortest odds belong to Lions players, and Detroit really hasn’t been very good in this market. I think Malik Washington, Douglas or even Coleman Jr. at a much bigger number are all worth consideration. Coleman had a red-zone target last week and is tied for the team lead among wide receivers with three.

The Lions have also allowed the most touchdowns to tight ends this season. There are a lot of attractive options at favorable prices if Miami is able to score first.

Houston Texans: Marvin Harrison Jr. +1400, Foster Moreau +2500

Harrison and former Ohio State teammate C.J. Stroud connected for the first touchdown in Week 7. Coming off a bye week, I assume Harrison has become more comfortable in the playbook and has likely logged additional reps with his former quarterback in an effort to realize the potential he showed in college. The Texans have spread the ball around in the red zone this season, and Harrison has only a couple of red-zone targets since arriving, but that familiarity could prove valuable.

Moreau actually has two first-team touchdowns this season and three touchdowns overall. Dalton Schultz still hasn’t found the end zone. I’m not sure whether opposing defenses are losing track of Moreau or what, but his emergence as a scoring-area option has been a bit of a surprise.

Despite what we’ve seen so far, Moreau is listed at 25-1 and Schultz at 12-1. I’ll take a shot at double the price against a Chargers team that has scored the game’s first touchdown only once and hasn’t scored a touchdown at all in its last two games.