Is the Jaguars’ success hurting Trevor Lawrence’s MVP chances?

Trevor Lawrence is having, quite possibly, the best quarterback season in Jacksonville Jaguars history.

Through seven games, Lawrence has tossed 17 touchdowns to just four interceptions, and just shy of 1700 yards passing.

The part that makes those stats even more impressive is just how much time Trevor Lawrence has missed in blowouts. The Jaguars have pulled their starters in three of their seven games, causing Trevor Lawrence to miss over 40 minutes of gametime this season.

If you include the ending to Lawrence’s 2025 season, he’s now been pulled from eight of the Jaguars’ last 15 games, missing a grand total of 89 minutes of play.

Even so, Lawrence has totaled 44 touchdowns across the last 17 regular season games.

But looking at 2026, Lawrence has been pulled in the third quarter twice (Browns, Colts) and in the fourth quarter once (Patriots), missing a total of 40:37.

Even if he did finish games, the Jags simply aren’t running all that many plays due to their leads. The team ranks 32nd in offensive plays and 32nd in pass attempts in the fourth quarter.

In the first half, Lawrence ranks fourth in passing yards. Through the first three quarters, Lawrence ranks sixth. Extend that to a full game and he drops all the way to 18th in total passing yards.

Winning has never hurt so good. Some might see those 1,690 passing yards and discredit what Lawrence has done this season. If someone is unaware of why; it would only make sense. But context matters.

From an efficiency standpoint, none have been better than Lawrence this season. Entering Week 9, Trevor Lawrence ranks first in Passer Rating (112.6), first in TD % (8.6%), second in yards per attempt (8.5), and second in EPA/play (0.24).

On a per throw basis, Lawrence is the best in the NFL this season. Against the Colts three of his 10 completions went for touchdowns and he averaged 21.0 yards per reception.

He’s been far more accurate and safer with the football as well, completing 65.7% of his passes and 2.0% interception rate. Both of those figures are personal bests since 2022.

Another reason for Lawrence’s diluted production is the success of the Jaguars’ rushing attack, namely Bhayshul Tuten.

The good news for Jacksonville is they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. The bad news is that Lawrence’s production, and thus MVP odds, may suffer as a result.

I’m not sure Trevor Lawrence or the Jaguars really care, however. They have one trophy in mind this season, the Lombardi.

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