Chicago Sun-Times — News
05/11/2026 18:35

OK, Miami is No. 1 and Notre Dame No. 11, but who's actually better? College football Week 10 picks

Man, oh, man, does the College Football Playoff committee ever love it some SEC.

That was the biggest takeaway from this season’s initial playoff rankings, released Tuesday. Seven SEC teams packed the top 14 spots, and — more to the point — every SEC team with a pulse was ranked higher by the committee than it was in the AP and coaches’ polls.

Good for the SEC. Its feelings were hurt after the Big Ten won back-to-back-to-back national championships, but now it can feel special again.

What else about the CFP rankings stands out? Here’s one huge thing: the 10-spot gap between the top team, unbeaten ACC powerhouse Miami, and one-loss Notre Dame.

Do the 8-0 Hurricanes deserve to be No. 1? Sure, that’s fine. But with the Fighting Irish at 11, they’re right back where they were a year ago, only this time it’s plain and obvious — they can’t lose a second game, to Miami or anybody else, and expect to make the 12-team playoff field.

That makes the highest-profile game in a sparkling Week 10 lineup — No. 1 Miami (+7½) at No. 11 Notre Dame (6:30 p.m., NBC 5, 780-AM) — an absolute must-win for the Irish.

The huge point spread, with the Irish favored by more than a touchdown, merely suggests the committee isn’t seeing what oddsmakers and bettors are seeing: that the Irish pretty clearly are one of the best teams out there. This is the first time a No. 1 team in the playoff rankings has ever been an underdog against an opponent not in the top 10.

Last season, the Irish lost 27-24 at Miami, a result that came back to haunt them when the playoff bracket was finalized. Both teams might be better a year later.

The Hurricanes have upgraded at quarterback — Darian Mensah is one great night from grabbing control of the Heisman Trophy race — but they’re without Malachi Toney, one of the most explosive offensive playmakers in the country, who had ankle surgery this week. Mensah still has plenty of weapons to work with, including his own two legs. The Irish will have to keep him from controlling third downs with sprints for the sticks. Not having Toney will show up and hurt Miami at some point.

Irish win, 27-23, and move into next week’s top six.

Related

Other Week 10 picks

All games are Saturday unless otherwise noted. My picks to cover are listed first, with CFP rankings in effect.

Illinois (+4½) vs. Nebraska (7 p.m. Friday, Fox 32, 890-AM): Statistically, the Huskers are better. On Planet Reality, they’ve lost three straight games, continue to falter uncannily in tight finishes and are 10 years removed from their last winning season in the Big Ten. Illini walk it off with a field goal.

No. 3 Utah (-4½) vs. No. 9 BYU (11 a.m., ABC 7): BYU has scrapped its way to victory in three straight Holy War games. Utes end the streak — 24-16 — by running the ball and then running it some more.

No. 5 Alabama (+6½) at No. 14 LSU (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): This will be the rivals’ 20th meeting since the last time LSU beat Alabama by a wide enough margin to cover this spread. That’s a trend I can’t ignore. LSU wins, though, 27-24.

No. 12 Ohio State (-7½) vs. No. 23 Oregon (2:30 p.m., CBS 2): Buckeyes QB Luke Fahey wasn’t bad in a loss at USC, his first start, and the freshman should be a lot more comfortable back at home. Time for the Buckeyes to rise up on the other side of the ball, too. They get it done, 23-10.

No. 13 Tennessee (-6½) vs. No. 6 Kentucky (5:15 p.m., ESPN): To say Tennessee has owned this rivalry is an understatement. Does that offset the fact the surprising Wildcats have won on the road against Texas A&M, South Carolina and Oklahoma? The Vols’ sack-happy D might be the difference. Vols, 30-21.

Northwestern (-2½) vs. No. 19 Iowa (6:30 p.m., Fox 32, 720-AM): Wildcats QB Aidan Chiles has been so good. Hawkeyes fans will be everywhere at the new Ryan Field, but this might be Chiles’ moment. Cats, 23-20.

My favorite favorite: No. 2 Georgia (-3½) at No. 10 Ole Miss (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): The real No. 1 team in the country? It’s the Bulldogs. At least, I’m riding with them to win the natty if I have to pick a team today.

My favorite underdog: No. 18 Missouri (+2½) vs. No. 7 Texas (11 a.m., ESPN): The Tigers are too physical up front on defense, and the Longhorns have too many injury concerns. Upset.

Last week: 5-3 straight-up, 6-2 against the spread.

Season to date: 46-18 straight-up, 37-27 against the spread.

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