Friday morning forecast: Rain expected later this evening

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — High pressure over northeastern New Mexico continues to weaken this morning ahead of our next weather system. A disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere is beginning to move into west-central and southwestern Arizona, bringing a plume of Pacific moisture with it. Cloud cover is increasing across western and northwestern New Mexico and spreading into central parts of the state.

Nearly 99% of our viewing area has remained rain-free this morning, with the exception of a few short-lived showers in Apache County, Arizona, and San Juan and McKinley counties in New Mexico. That is likely to change as the disturbance continues moving south and then east.

Rain chances will increase throughout the day, with the greatest coverage expected during the afternoon and evening. Numerous to widespread rain showers are forecast across southern New Mexico, while western and central areas will see isolated to scattered showers. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in western New Mexico this afternoon, although atmospheric instability will be limited.

Some eastern areas could also see activity during the evening and overnight hours, but atmospheric lift will be limited due to the disturbance’s position. Terrain may play a greater role in producing precipitation in those areas.

For Albuquerque, forecast models have consistently indicated the possibility of rain. For now, we’re keeping rain chances at 10% during the day and 30% during the evening. Any showers would most likely develop between 5 and 10 p.m., although activity could begin as early as 3 or 4 p.m. Rain chances should diminish closer to midnight.

The core of the system is expected to remain outside New Mexico, tracking across northern Mexico before moving into Texas during the second half of the weekend. Unlike several recent storm systems that produced flooding across parts of the state, this disturbance is carrying less moisture. As a result, rainfall totals should be lighter, generally remaining below a quarter-inch. A few locations experiencing heavier showers could receive slightly higher amounts, but totals should generally stay below a half-inch.

Snow will also be possible across western and southern New Mexico, with generally light accumulations expected. However, some higher elevations, particularly in the south-central mountains, could receive 1 to 2 inches of snow. Isolated totals approaching 4 inches cannot be ruled out, especially as temperatures fall this evening.

Saturday will remain soggy across much of southern New Mexico, while cloud cover gradually decreases from north to south across northern and central parts of the state. Rain should taper off Saturday evening, setting the stage for a sunnier and slightly warmer Sunday. A slight chance of lingering showers will remain across far southeastern New Mexico on Sunday.

Most of next week looks quiet, with a gradual warming trend expected. Mornings will remain chilly, but afternoon highs should climb a little higher nearly every day.

There is also the potential for a cold front to brush parts of eastern New Mexico sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday. However, uncertainty remains regarding its timing and how far into the state it will extend.

Looking beyond the next seven days, unsettled weather could return to the Land of Enchantment by Friday and into the following weekend as another potentially strong Pacific storm system approaches. This remains well beyond the immediate forecast period, and plenty of details still need to be worked out. We’ll continue monitoring the system as the forecast becomes clearer over the next week.

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