College football predictions: Navy, San Jose State among best bets for weekend

The first College Football Playoff rankings have been a major topic of conversation this week, but don’t let them, or the endless debate surrounding them, cloud your judgment from a handicapping standpoint.

At this point, the rankings largely don’t matter, nor are they reliable indicators of how teams should be rated.

If anything, they’re a useful fade tool at this time of year, as recreational and less-informed bettors are likely to overvalue certain teams because of their rankings. That could work to our advantage.

Navy -7 vs. Temple

The Midshipmen have played a difficult stretch recently, losing to Notre Dame, North Texas and UTSA. All three are potent offensive teams capable of being efficient in a low-possession environment, which is typical of Navy games.

That said, Navy clearly misses P.J. Volker, its former defensive coordinator who is now with the Baltimore Ravens. Still, the offense continues to thrive under offensive coordinator Drew Cronic.

Jackson Gutierrez didn’t begin the season as the starter, but he’s already approaching 1,000 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns. He has also thrown for seven touchdowns and has proven to be an effective dual-threat quarterback in this offense.

Replacing Blake Horvath was always going to be difficult, and Braxton Woodson appeared to be the logical successor. However, Woodson’s injury created an opportunity for Gutierrez, and he has quite literally run with it.

Not surprisingly, Gutierrez struggled to run against Air Force, whose defense sees the option every day in practice. Outside of that game, he has rushed for 75, 134, 232, 139, 228 and 110 yards since taking over for Woodson against Florida Atlantic in Week 2. With Temple’s run defense declining as the season progresses, he should be in line for another big game.

The Owls allowed 4.32 yards per carry in September but 4.82 yards per carry in October.

Temple ranks 75th nationally in offensive points per drive, according to Brian Fremeau of BCFToys, but sits 116th defensively. Remember that Navy schedule mentioned earlier? Notre Dame leads the nation in offensive points per drive, excluding garbage time, at 4.02. North Texas ranks fourth at 3.54, while UTSA is 30th at 2.81. Even Florida Atlantic, which beat Navy earlier this season, ranks 23rd at 2.93.

As a result, this is a significant step down in class for the Navy defense, and its offense should continue to operate effectively.

San Jose State -10 vs. Northern Illinois

Life in the Mountain West has not been kind to Northern Illinois.

The Huskies put together a solid effort in last week’s 31-24 loss to UNLV, but their other three conference losses came by 21, 18 and 35 points. Now they return to the road for a matchup against San Jose State on the West Coast.

The Spartans boast a strong defense. According to Fremeau’s non-garbage-time defensive points-per-drive metric, San Jose State ranks 41st nationally at just 1.9 points allowed per drive.

Conversely, Northern Illinois has allowed more than four points per drive. Only Colorado State has been worse. The Huskies have also struggled offensively. Only UTEP ranks lower in net points per drive. Despite its defensive success, San Jose State ranks just 99th nationally in that category.

With one of the nation’s weakest defenses coming to town, this should present an opportunity for the Spartans to show some offensive improvement. The defense could also create scoring opportunities. San Jose State has recorded 31 sacks and 11 interceptions. A defensive touchdown or a short-field situation could provide a significant boost and may even be expected.

Arizona State -3½ vs. Colorado

The Sun Devils came through for us last week with a relatively comfortable cover against BYU.

Jake Fette was not particularly accurate, throwing for 166 yards on 42 attempts, but he was also under constant pressure, absorbing six sacks and losing a fumble. Arizona State held BYU to just 1.6 yards per carry and largely contained Bear Bachmeier. Despite the negative plays and turnovers, the Sun Devils remained competitive and were in the game entering the fourth quarter.

Fette now goes from facing a top-15 defense in his first start to facing a Colorado defense that ranks 68th nationally in yards allowed per play. Cardae Mack still rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries against BYU’s front, and he should be able to find similar, if not greater, success in this matchup.

Fette should also receive a warm welcome from the home crowd in Tempe, especially after fans spent part of the previous home game booing Cutter Boley and the offense.

Colorado’s defense regressed in October, allowing nearly 5.8 yards per play. The offense improved, averaging more than 6 yards per play, but Arizona State has several talented defensive players, and that unit has shown significant improvement in recent weeks.

I prefer Kenny Dillingham over Deion Sanders in this coaching matchup, especially now that Dillingham has additional film available to evaluate Fette and further tailor the game plan.